The protein system
Egypt had 89.8 grams of protein per person a day in 2023, much of it from cereals.[4, 5, 13] Wheat alone supplies about 37 per cent of protein, and animal foods about 29 per cent.[4] Fish and poultry are the main animal foods. Egypt produces about two million tonnes of fish, and its broiler farms supply about 97 per cent of the chicken eaten at home.[1, 3]
Grain is the weak point. Wheat production is forecast at 9.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, against 20.3 million tonnes used. Home-grown maize meets about 40 per cent of demand.[1] Egypt grows slightly more rice than it uses, but rice cannot take the place of wheat in the diet or maize in feed on that scale.[1] So Egypt is a large buyer of both wheat and animal feed.
Much of the meat and fish raised in Egypt is built on imported feed. Poultry and fish farms use maize and soybean meal, with maize imports forecast at 10.5 million tonnes and soybean imports at 5.2 million tonnes.[1, 2] Egyptian farms do the final growing, but a grain or currency shock still raises the price of fish and chicken. Growing those sectors without a secure feed supply would add to Egypt's dependence on imports.
Durable domestic capacity:
Egypt grows about half its cereals, has a rice surplus, produces two million tonnes of fish, and nearly feeds itself on poultry and eggs. In June 2026 it bought a record 4.6 million tonnes of wheat from farmers, grown on a record 3.7 million feddans.[14] Each Egyptian has 20.5 kg of fish a year, close to the world average of 20.7 kg.[6, 35]
The question is whether Egypt can keep this up. Arable land is 3.1 per cent of the country and 0.027 hectares per person, among the lowest in the world.[7] The poultry, dairy and fish that look home-grown depend on 10.5 million tonnes of imported maize and 5.2 million tonnes of imported soybeans.[1, 2] Rising seas and salty soil in the Delta threaten rice, the one cereal Egypt grows in surplus.[1] The northern lakes that supply the wild catch are degraded. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile has been generating power since 9 September 2025. Egypt's foreign ministry calls it illegal, and there is no binding deal on sharing the water.[11, 12]
Resource headroom:
Egypt has little room to grow more food. It has 55.5 to 57.5 billion cubic metres of renewable water a year, and 97 per cent of it is Nile water that rises outside the country. Water per person has fallen below 500 cubic metres, the level of absolute scarcity.[9, 10] Water that falls within Egypt itself comes to 8.9 cubic metres per person a year.[8] Farming takes 86 per cent of the water drawn. Canals deliver 70 per cent of what enters them, and fields use only half of what arrives.[10]
Farmland has grown since 2000. Cropland rose 16.6 per cent to 3.84 million hectares and arable land 10.8 per cent to 3.10 million hectares.[48, 49] But the population grew 59 per cent, so land per person fell. Arable land per person dropped 29.3 per cent, from 0.038 to 0.027 hectares, and cropland per person 20.8 per cent.[48, 49] Almost all cropland can be irrigated: 100 per cent in 2000 and 99.7 per cent in 2019.[48]
Little bank credit goes to farming. Agriculture took 1.67 per cent of bank lending in 2024, below the world average of 2.24 per cent and about a sixth of its share of the economy.[50, 51] New farmland in Egypt is paid for by the state, not by banks.
Egypt's diet is light on land and water. Animal protein supplies just 3.4 per cent of its calories, which needs far less land and water than a meat-heavy diet.[5] Most of the animal protein comes from tilapia and chicken. Fish feed is mostly maize (20 to 25 per cent), wheat bran (20 to 30) and rice bran (10 to 25), so it uses little fishmeal from wild fish.[1]
The New Delta project is the largest planned addition to Egypt's farmland. It opened on 17 May 2026 with EGP 800 billion committed, 19 pumping stations, 2,000 MW of power and the El Hammam plant, which treats 7.5 million cubic metres of water a day. It aims to farm 2.2 million feddans, adding about 15 per cent to the cultivated area.[32, 33] Most of the reused drainage water is already counted in Egypt's water supply. Egypt's last two land schemes delivered far less than planned. Toshka, launched in 1997 with a target of 3.4 million feddans, had brought 517,000 into farming by 2026.[52] The 1.5 Million Feddan project, launched in December 2015, was farming 440,000 feddans by August 2025, with another 875,000 handed out but not yet farmed.[53] On that record, the full 2.2 million feddans remains a target.
Import exposure:
Egypt buys its wheat from very few suppliers, but its sea routes are safe. Of 8.8 million tonnes of wheat imported between July 2025 and January 2026, Russia supplied 60 per cent and Ukraine 24.5 per cent.[1] Over five seasons Russia supplied 35.8 million tonnes, the EU 9.0 million and Ukraine 8.85 million.[1] Imports make up about 55 per cent of the cereals Egypt eats and 40 per cent of its food by value.[1, 10]
Geography helps. When the Gulf's sea lanes closed in 2026, Egypt's stayed open. All its main grain and oilseed suppliers (Russia, Ukraine, the EU, the United States, Brazil and Argentina) reach Egyptian ports through the Black Sea and Turkish Straits, the Mediterranean or the Atlantic.[1, 2] The 2026 Hormuz crisis cut tanker traffic by more than 90 per cent, and FAO warned that up to 30 per cent of traded fertiliser passes through that strait.[28, 29] Egypt's food routes were untouched. It was hit through energy prices instead. Egypt owns the Suez Canal rather than relying on it for food, and canal traffic rose 23.6 per cent for a third quarter in a row to mid-2026.[30] Private millers bought 60.3 per cent of wheat imports in the same period, so Egypt does not depend on one state buyer.[1] The remaining risk is the Turkish Straits.
Upstream dependence:
Feed is where Egypt is most exposed. Home-grown soybeans cover less than 2 per cent of demand in 2026/27. Of the 20.8 million tonnes imported since 2020/21, 72.2 per cent came from the United States.[2] Home-grown maize meets less than 40 per cent of the 14.8 million tonnes fed to animals, and fish farms alone use 1.4 to 1.5 million tonnes of feed.[1] Breeding stock and many veterinary products are imported.
Fertiliser is Egypt's strength. It can make 7.2 to 7.3 million tonnes of urea a year and exported about 4.5 million tonnes a year on average from 2023 to 2025. Fertiliser exports earned US$9.4 billion in 2025. Egypt has more than three billion tonnes of phosphate reserves and can crush about 10 million tonnes of oilseeds a year.[2, 25, 26] It has used that strength. When world urea prices jumped, the government put a duty of US$90 a tonne on nitrogen exports from May 2026, later changed to 10 per cent of value, to keep fertiliser for Egyptian farmers.[27]
But the gas that makes nitrogen fertiliser is now imported. Egypt produces about 4 billion cubic feet of gas a day and uses more than 6.4.[23] When Israeli gas stopped on 28 February 2026, fertiliser plants were cut back to keep the power on, and the monthly gas import bill rose from US$560 million to US$1.65 billion.[22, 25] Supply was cut again in June 2026, and Egypt bought US$1.1 billion of LNG in an emergency.[23] The 2026/27 budget sets aside US$10.7 billion for gas imports, up 26 per cent.[24]
Access and affordability:
In 2024, 45.4 per cent of Egyptians, 52.9 million people, , which cost Int$6.38 a person a day.[37, 54] That is far more than in Morocco or Tunisia.[54] Yet was 9.4 per cent in 2022-24, and was about 13 per cent in 2024, half the rate of 2000.[37, 38, 39] Food subsidies do more to keep people fed than to make a healthy diet affordable.
Bread shows this best. The subsidised baladi loaf cost 5 piasters for 36 years, until it rose to 20 piasters in June 2024. The state still pays 89 per cent of the cost of making it.[1, 42] Ration-card bakeries served 73 million people in 2023, and 69 million were still registered in January 2025.[42, 1] Meat and chicken bought outside the ration system are another matter. Between 2021 and 2024 beef prices rose 186.7 per cent and chicken 192.3 per cent.[56, 57, 59]
The falling pound pushed food prices up. Food prices in Egypt rose 169.1 per cent between 2021 and 2024, close to the 181.0 per cent rise in world food prices measured in pounds.[56, 57, 58] Food inflation peaked at 73.6 per cent in September 2023 and stayed volatile into mid-2026.[40] Subsidised bakeries and ration shops reach most people, but rural poverty is about twice the urban rate. Overall poverty was 33.5 per cent in 2021.[41]
Shock endurance:
Wheat stocks, money sent home from abroad and lower inflation give Egypt real buffers. The strategic wheat reserve held about 4.5 million tonnes in February 2026, roughly four months of use, against five weeks a decade earlier. By April 2026 the supply ministry reported up to six months of cover for basic foods.[13, 15, 16] Reserves reached a record US$55.07 billion in June 2026.[18] The January 2026 level of US$52.6 billion covered about 6.9 months of goods imports, well above the usual three-month benchmark.[43] Egyptians abroad sent home US$43.1 billion between July 2025 and May 2026, up 31.2 per cent.[18] Food inflation fell from 20.2 per cent in January 2025 to 1.5 per cent a year later, though it still swings.[1, 40]
Egypt has spread its wheat buying. Russia's share fell from 74 per cent in 2024 to 55 per cent in 2025, while Ukraine's doubled.[13] During the crisis, state grain buying moved from GASC to the Future of Egypt Authority.[1] The 2024 bread price rise passed without unrest.[1] Egypt also coped with Suez revenue falling from US$10.25 billion in 2023 to about US$4 billion in 2024.[31]
Egypt can pay for food in a crisis, at a price. Its reserves are deep, and it has scaled up social protection under pressure. The Takaful and Karama cash transfer programme, financed by the World Bank, grew from 3.69 million households in June 2022 to 4.67 million by December 2023, backed by US$500 million raised in response to COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine.[46, 47] But borrowing is expensive. Egypt's credit rating is below investment grade (S&P B stable, Moody's Caa1 positive, Fitch B negative). When it returned to the bond market for US$2 billion in January 2025, it was offered at 9.75 to 10 per cent.[44, 45] Debt payments take about 83 per cent of tax revenue, with US$29.18 billion due in 2026.[19, 20, 21] Egypt cannot outbid others on world markets the way a Gulf state can. Feed stocks are thin, about a month of cover: maize stocks are 10.3 per cent of a year's use and soybean meal 8.6 per cent.[1, 2] If feed stopped arriving, bread would hold, but poultry, eggs and farmed fish would shrink within weeks. Egypt's 89.8 grams of protein per person a day leaves about a third of supply above what people need.
Trajectory
Egypt is making steady progress. It bought a record 4.6 million tonnes of wheat at around US$320 a tonne, above world prices, to secure its staple.[14] New Delta, the national silo programme and the reuse of wastewater are the only ways to grow, and all three are funded.[16, 17, 32] Reserves, remittances and falling inflation have given the state room it did not have in 2022.
A binding deal on sharing the Nile would make farming less uncertain. Growing more feed at home, through New Delta maize or more local protein in fish feed, would cut reliance on imports. Soybean meal stocks cover only about a month.[1, 2] Closing the gas gap would mean less imported gas for fertiliser.[22, 24] The OECD recommends moving some spending from general price subsidies to cash aimed at nutrition, which would help the poorest households.[37] If the Turkish Straits closed or Russia restricted exports, wheat supplies would come under pressure, though reserves now cover about four months.[13]