The protein system
The EU had 113.6 grams of protein available per person each day in 2023.[27] Much of its meat and dairy comes from farms within the bloc. Production in 2025 was about 115 per cent of domestic use for pigmeat, 109 per cent for poultry and 103 per cent for beef and veal; raw milk output reached 161.8 million tonnes in 2024.[14, 16, 53] This gives consumers a broad domestic supply of animal foods.
That production depends on a mixed feed system. Livestock use roughly 640 million tonnes of feed a year, much of it grass and other roughage that Europe supplies itself.[3, 6, 31] The high-protein portion is different: EU crops met 76 per cent of plant-protein use in 2023/24, but domestic soybean meal covered only about 3 per cent.[1, 9] Imported meal is especially important for pigs and poultry, where feed accounts for a large share of farm costs.[6]
Seafood is a separate gap. EU production covered 38.1 per cent of seafood supply in 2023, while imports and farmed fish made up much of the remainder.[10, 11] Meat and milk surpluses therefore coexist with dependence on foreign soy for feed and foreign fish for food. Most soy shipments arrive across the Atlantic through several ports, which gives the bloc more routing options than a single-corridor importer.[7, 28]
Durable domestic capacity:
EU farms produce more than domestic demand for major meats, dairy and cereals; protein supply is about twice the adult requirement.[14, 16, 27] But land, water and fish stocks constrain future output. Only 28 per cent of assessed marine stocks meet both good-status criteria, falling to 8.6 per cent in the Mediterranean and Black Seas.[12, 32] Water scarcity affected 28 per cent of EU land and 32 per cent of its population in 2023.[13] Cereal yields are projected to grow just 0.1 per cent annually to 2035, while beef, pigmeat and sheep output decline.[5]
Resource headroom:
There is little room to expand: cereal area is forecast to fall to 49.5 million hectares by 2035, arable land by 0.4 per cent, and pasture with ruminant numbers.[5] Livestock is feed-intensive, with pigs and poultry making up 79 per cent of meat output.[14] Europe also imports substantial feed soy: 25.5 million tonnes in soybean-meal equivalent in 2023.[6] Aquaculture remains small at 1.04 million tonnes, compared with 2.12 million tonnes of farmed seafood imports, and relies on imported fishmeal.[6, 11]
Grass and other roughage provide 41 per cent of EU feed protein, and the EU is self-sufficient in that feed.[6, 31] This gives livestock a domestic source that does not compete directly with food crops for arable land.
Irrigation equipment covers 20.2 per cent of EU arable land, up from 16.8 per cent in 2000, though Eurostat's broader farm-area measure puts irrigated land at 6.5 per cent.[43, 45] Irrigation is concentrated in Italy, Spain and France; Malta and Greece have the highest national shares, both under water stress.[45] Agricultural credit is about three times agriculture's share of the economy in Ireland, Belgium, France and Germany.[44] Since 2000, arable area fell 11.5 per cent and cropland per person 15 per cent.[43, 46] Irrigation and credit can improve yields, but only on the land already in use.
Import exposure:
The EU is a net exporter of meat, dairy and cereals, but livestock depends on concentrated feed imports.[28] Poultry is the main growing meat import, forecast to rise from 743,000 tonnes in 2025 to 955,000 by 2035.[5, 25] Brazil and Argentina supplied 87 per cent of soybean meal imports in July–December 2025/26; soybean imports are more diversified across the United States, Brazil, Canada and Ukraine.[7]
Most feed imports cross the Atlantic without passing major maritime chokepoints and enter through multiple deep-water ports. When Black Sea routes closed in 2022, solidarity lanes rerouted Ukrainian maize, then 52 per cent of EU imports.[21]
Upstream dependence:
Feed is the EU's lasting weakness. Some 23 to 24 per cent of EU feed protein is imported, which understates the problem: 75 per cent of high-protein feed materials and about 96 per cent of soybean meal are imported, with 13.4 million tonnes of soya bean and soya meal protein brought in during 2024/25.[1, 5, 8] Feed is up to 50 per cent of the farm-gate value of poultry and 55 per cent for pigs, so a feed shock is a margin shock immediately.[6]
Fertiliser remains another dependency. In 2024, Canada supplied 37.8 per cent of potassic fertiliser imports, while Morocco supplied 44.9 per cent of finished phosphatic fertiliser.[54] Nitrogen import dependence rose from 28 per cent in 2019 to 45 per cent in 2022; the bloc imported 2.0 million tonnes of ammonia and 5.9 million tonnes of urea in 2024.[22, 24] Gas is the underlying risk: the EU imported 90 per cent of its natural gas in 2023, and high gas prices forced about 70 per cent of ammonia capacity to shut in summer 2022.[18, 20] Nitrogen use has since recovered, but remained 15.8 per cent below its 2017 peak in 2024.[17]
Europe retains strengths in breeding genetics, veterinary medicines and crop-protection products, and it has a large ammonia and NPK industry of its own.[20]
Access and affordability:
In 2024, an estimated 8.2 per cent of people across the 27 EU member states .[40, 41] Eurostat's separate measure found that 8.5 per cent could not afford a meal with meat, chicken, fish or a vegetarian equivalent every second day in 2025.[33]
The bloc average conceals substantial differences. Unaffordability reached 30.0 per cent in Hungary and 27.7 per cent in Slovakia, with eight other members between 10 and 24 per cent.[40] has remained below FAO's 2.5 per cent reporting threshold since 2000.[34]
Food inflation peaked at 16.9 per cent in March 2023 and was 3.1 per cent in December 2025.[38] A comparison of retail meat prices with world poultry prices suggests less than a quarter of the 2021–22 increase reached the EU measure.[47, 51] But the euro's 12.4 per cent fall against the dollar added to feed and energy costs, and Hungary's food inflation peaked at 44.8 per cent against low-to-mid-teen rates in France.[38, 48, 49] EU food prices remained 26.6 per cent above March 2022 levels in December 2025, despite a 21.4 per cent fall in the FAO world index.[47, 50]
Shock endurance:
Because the bloc exports more protein than it imports, a trade shutdown redirects supply inward rather than cutting it off, and the EUR 386.6 billion CAP for 2021 to 2027 can underwrite farm income through a price shock.[29] Twenty-seven member states provide redundancy no single country holds: compound feed output spans Spain at 27.5 million tonnes, Germany 21.5, France 19.4, Italy 14.9, the Netherlands 13.8 and Poland 11.5.[6] The European Food Security Crisis preparedness and response Mechanism has run since 9 March 2022.[21]
The weaknesses remain. Soya-meal logistics rely on frequent deliveries. Animal disease is becoming permanent: the Commission now expects highly pathogenic avian influenza to circulate year-round instead of seasonally.[5] The 2022 shock was also expensive, with urea up 200 per cent and potash 141 per cent against the 2016 to 2020 average.[20]
Livestock absorbs 61 per cent of internal cereal use, so grain can be redirected from feed to food during a severe concentrate-feed shock, alongside reductions in monogastric herds.[6, 27, 52] In 2022 the EU took simultaneous gas, fertiliser and Black Sea shocks, lost most of its ammonia output and had no physical shortage, while permitting production on fallow land and mobilising EUR 500 million in farm support within weeks.[21] About half of EU supply could be lost with the population still at requirement, on the bloc's supply of 113.6 g per person per day.[27, 52]
Cereal stocks can be redirected to food, but oilseed meals have few comparable substitutes and herd changes take months. Ten member states have worse affordability than the bloc average, and food prices remain above 2022 levels, leaving poorer households exposed to renewed shocks.[40, 47, 50, 51] The 2022 fallow-land derogation is the bloc's tested measure for redirecting land to production.[21]
The euro area's freely convertible currency and deep markets support food purchases without relying on official reserves, which cover 3.35 months of imports.[35] Non-euro members carry greater currency risk; Hungary's 30 per cent healthy-diet unaffordability and 44.8 per cent food-inflation peak show the pressure.[40, 48] The single market, CAP and NextGenerationEU provide shared support.[29, 37] EU debt was 81.7 per cent of GDP in 2025, with a 3.1 per cent deficit.[36]
Trajectory
The Protein Action Plan targets a gradual change in feed sourcing. Lifting the EU-sourced share of feed oilseeds and protein crops to 35 per cent by 2035 still leaves two-thirds of high-protein feed imported, and the Commission's own baseline has oilseed and pulse production rising 2.5 per cent over the decade with net oilseed imports falling 5.9 per cent.[1, 2, 5] Fertiliser policy is moving towards costly independence: duties on Russian and Belarusian nitrogen fertilisers reach roughly 100 per cent ad valorem equivalent by 2028, while the Council suspended tariffs on certain other fertilisers for a year on 22 May 2026 to hold prices down.[5, 23] Reducing dependence through higher-cost inputs could weaken livestock margins and raise food costs.
Enlargement matters more. The Commission's own scenario has Ukrainian accession lifting plant protein autonomy from 76 to 86 per cent on the strength of Ukraine's 13.5 million tonnes of annual plant protein, and Ukraine already supplies 8 per cent of EU oilmeal imports and 10 per cent of soya beans.[1, 7] Over ten years, Ukraine's accession would matter more to EU protein supply than CAP protein-crop payments.
The internal trend runs the other way. Beef, pigmeat and sheep meat output all fall to 2035, pigmeat by 1.54 million tonnes, under national nitrogen and greenhouse-gas rules in Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Denmark.[5] Production falling alongside consumption keeps the intact while shrinking the absolute buffer and shifting the mix towards poultry, the meat most reliant on concentrate feed. Europe is on course to be no less self-sufficient in animal protein and no less dependent on South American soya meal to produce it.
Country notes
Austria. 108.5 g per day, 1.73 Mt of compound feed; grassland dairy and beef leave it less soya-exposed than the pig states.[27, 6, 7]
Belgium. 120.3 g per day, 6.14 Mt of compound feed, 3 Mt for pigs. Antwerp and Ghent are crush gateways, so it is exposed twice over; pig feed fell 7.0 per cent in 2023.[27, 6, 7]
Bulgaria. 86.5 g per day, among the lowest,[27] and 7.6 kg of seafood.[11] Compound feed grew 7.6 per cent to 1.34 Mt in 2023, the fastest in the EU.[6] Sunflower output eases its meal dependence.[14, 15]
Croatia. 115.3 g per day, 23.0 kg of seafood, 0.67 Mt of compound feed, unchanged. A net meat importer whose Adriatic aquaculture runs on imported feed fish.[27, 6, 11]
Cyprus. 98.7 g per day, 28.2 kg of seafood, 0.36 Mt of compound feed with effectively all concentrate imported. With Malta, the worst water scarcity of any member state in 2023.[27, 6, 11, 13]
Czechia. 96.1 g per day and the EU's lowest seafood consumption at 5.6 kg. A cereal surplus and a pigmeat deficit: it imports the animal protein its own grain could support.[27, 11, 14, 15]
Denmark. 126.3 g per day on a pigmeat sector producing 1.7 Mt. Compound feed fell 12.2 per cent in 2023, the steepest in the EU; greenhouse-gas policy will constrain herds further.[27, 6, 14, 5]
Estonia. 112.1 g per day, 17.5 kg of seafood, 0.23 Mt of compound feed. Dairy-led and tied to Baltic fisheries, the poorest-condition EU basin outside the Mediterranean[11].[27, 6]
Finland. 126.1 g per day, 17.9 kg of seafood. Climate caps arable expansion, but domestic barley, oats and rapeseed cover a high share of feed protein.[27, 6, 11]
France. 53.6 Mt of cereals in 2024, 20.8 per cent of the EU, and the largest beef producer at 20.0 per cent of output. It uses the most mineral nitrogen, 1.8 Mt of nutrient,[17] and takes 12 per cent of EU soya meal.[14, 7, 5]
Germany. Second cereal producer at 39.1 Mt, 4.3 Mt of pigmeat, largest cheese and butter producer,[16] 21.5 Mt of compound feed. Nitrogen use fell 39.3 per cent from 2014 to 2023, the steepest cut in the EU[17].[6, 14, 5]
Greece. 112.0 g per day, 20.3 kg of seafood, compound feed estimated at 4.0 Mt. A Mediterranean aquaculture producer on imported fishmeal facing acute seasonal water scarcity: the large member with the least room to grow.[27, 6, 11, 13]
Hungary. 93.6 g per day and 5.8 kg of seafood, the second lowest. Compound feed 3.65 Mt, half poultry; maize and sunflower surpluses help, with drought the operative risk.[27, 6, 11]
Ireland. The EU's highest protein supply at 136.9 g per day and the most lopsided profile anywhere: meat self-sufficiency 233 per cent in 2024, beef 701 per cent, sheep meat 385 per cent, poultry only 72 per cent.[30] The nitrates derogation governs herd size.[27, 5]
Italy. 116.6 g per day, 30.4 kg of seafood, 14.9 Mt of compound feed. It took about 10 per cent of EU soya bean and soya meal imports in 2025/26, and carries Po Valley irrigation exposure.[27, 6, 11, 7]
Latvia. 110.8 g per day,[27] 21.6 kg of seafood,[11] 0.35 Mt of compound feed.[6] A cereal exporter that supplies feed grain while importing concentrate protein.[14, 15]
Lithuania. 123.8 g per day, 20.0 kg of seafood, pig feed down 24 per cent in 2023, the steepest fall of any member state. As a rapeseed exporter it feeds the one high-protein meal in which the EU is 75 per cent self-sufficient.[27, 6, 11]
Luxembourg. 122.5 g per day, 29.5 kg of seafood, compound feed estimated at 90,000 t, the EU's smallest. Grassland dairy and beef with no domestic feed processing; it relies on the single market for supply.[27, 6, 11]
Malta. 105.8 g per day, compound feed estimated at 80,000 t, and the worst seasonal water scarcity in the EU alongside Cyprus. Negligible arable land and tuna ranching on imported feed fish make it the most import-dependent member.[27, 6, 11, 13]
Netherlands. The EU model in miniature: 22 per cent of EU oilseed imports and 15 per cent of soya meal through its ports in 2025/26, and 13.8 Mt of compound feed. Nitrogen policy is shrinking the herd.[6, 7, 5]
Poland. Largest poultry producer at 2.9 Mt, 20.5 per cent of EU output, and third cereal producer at 34.3 Mt. It took 15 per cent of EU soya meal; milk yields rose 46 per cent from 2014 to 2024, the fastest convergence in the bloc.[14, 7]
Portugal. 126.4 g per day and the EU's highest seafood consumption at 53.6 kg against a deep national fish deficit. Compound feed rose 7.7 per cent to 4.44 Mt in 2023; it is always short of cereals and feed.[27, 6, 11, 14]
Romania. Fifth cereal producer at 17.9 Mt with 2.91 Mt of compound feed, mostly poultry. Maize and sunflower surpluses but thin processing: it exports raw grain and imports higher-value protein.[6, 14]
Slovakia. The EU's lowest protein supply at 81.3 g per day, 10.2 kg of seafood, 0.68 Mt of compound feed, poultry output cut by avian influenza in 2023. It has the least room to absorb a price shock.[27, 6, 11, 14]
Slovenia. 101.5 g per day, 11.2 kg of seafood, 0.40 Mt of compound feed, three-fifths poultry. Small, grassland-based, dependent on neighbours' supply chains.[27, 6, 11]
Spain. Largest meat producer at 7.36 Mt, largest pigmeat producer at 5.0 Mt, largest compound feed producer at 27.5 Mt, largest oilmeal importer at 17 per cent of EU soya meal, and among Europe's most water-scarce large economies. Spain is where the EU's model is most exposed: output expanding, feed imported, water base contracting.[6, 14, 7, 13]
Sweden. 112.8 g per day, 1.93 Mt of compound feed, low livestock density, high grassland share. A cereal and rapeseed surplus country, among the least feed-import-exposed in relative terms.[27, 6, 14]