The protein system
In 2023, Nigeria had 57.0 grams of protein available per person per day, including just 6.6 grams from animal sources.[1, 2] Corn, sorghum, rice, millet, cassava, yam, cowpea and groundnut supply most protein and energy.[3] Wheat is the exception: about 130,000 tonnes of domestic output meets only 2 per cent of 6.4 million tonnes of consumption.[3]
Animal protein production is small relative to demand. Nigeria produces about 400,000 tonnes of poultry and 600,000 tonnes of milk a year; domestic milk covers 40 per cent of demand, with pastoral herds producing most of it.[4, 5, 20] Fish is the largest animal-protein source, but domestic production of 1.1 million tonnes meets less than a third of demand above 3.6 million tonnes; imports cost over USD 1 billion a year.[17, 18, 19] Half of cattle slaughtered for beef are trekked in from Sahel neighbours.[4] The Ministry of Livestock Development, created in 2024, targets daily protein consumption of 75 grams.[4]
Durable domestic capacity:
Nigeria produces substantial quantities of staples, but protein availability was only 57 grams per person per day in 2023, below the 58 grams needed to meet an adult's requirements. Animal protein supplied just 6.6 grams, about a fifth of the global mean. Total availability had fallen from 60.9 grams in 2018.[1, 2]
Coarse grains, tubers and pulses are widely produced, and rice self-sufficiency is about two-thirds.[3] But insecurity prevents farmers from using some of that capacity. In Katsina, surveyed maize farmers reported household incomes down 30–40 per cent and yields more than halved; a 2023 Zamfara survey found crop income per hectare down about 57 per cent.[16] Displacement in the North West exceeded 655,000 in March 2025, while over two million people remained displaced in the North East.[15, 16]
Resource headroom:
Nigeria has a large cultivated base and room to raise yields: arable land covers 40.5 per cent of national territory, cultivated area is about 44.6 million hectares, and corn yields of 2.2 tonnes per hectare are well below attainable levels.[3, 10, 12] But only 331,200 hectares were equipped for irrigation in 2024, 0.74 per cent of cropland, against a stated potential of 3.14 million hectares.[38, 41]
Two World Bank irrigation programmes together targeted about 90,000 hectares: the 2015–25 programme delivered just over 43,000 of its 50,000-hectare target, while its successor targets another 40,000.[40] Credit is also weak: farms get less than a quarter of the bank lending their share of the economy would suggest, and the figure fell in 2023.[39] The Anchor Borrowers' Programme disbursed NGN 1.12 trillion, but hundreds of billions remained unrecovered and the programme faced a National Assembly probe.[42, 43]
Water and inputs narrow the margin further. Renewable freshwater is 990 cubic metres per person, below the conventional scarcity line, and fertiliser application fell from 22.6 kg per hectare in 2020 to 4.2 in 2023.[8, 9, 13] Cropland per person fell 40.6 per cent between 2000 and 2024 as population grew faster than cultivated land.[38] Armed groups also make some farmland in Zamfara, Katsina and Kaduna inaccessible.[16]
Import exposure:
Nigeria imports roughly a quarter to a third of its protein, and that dependence falls mostly on animal foods and other high-quality protein. Wheat imports of 6.7 million tonnes in , rising to a forecast 7.2 million in MY2026/27, cover about 98 per cent of consumption.[3] Rice imports of 3.2 million tonnes fill more than a third of consumption, overwhelmingly sourced from India through informal channels via neighbouring countries.[3] Fish imports of 2 to 2.4 million tonnes represent roughly two-thirds of supply.[17, 19] Dairy is about 60 per cent imported.[20]
Concentration and geography are less alarming than volume. Wheat supply is well diversified: Poland led in 2023/24 with 23 per cent of a record 5 million tonnes, ahead of Latvia, Canada, Lithuania and Russia, spreading exposure across Baltic, North American and Black Sea origins.[21] Imports arrive over open Atlantic routes with no maritime chokepoint, though they funnel through congested Lagos-area ports. Two exposures matter more than the rest. First, payment capacity: the naira lost more than half its value against the dollar in 2024, letters of credit became difficult to obtain, and formal imports were priced beyond the reach of consumers whose purchasing power had collapsed.[24] Second, informality: the 2003 frozen poultry ban has produced an estimated one million tonnes a year of smuggled chicken through Benin, and most parboiled rice enters the same way.[29, 3] These flows are unrecorded and vulnerable to any border closure, as Nigeria's own 2019-21 closure showed.
Upstream dependence:
Nigeria has a largely domestic feed supply: corn imports of 250,000 to 650,000 tonnes compare with consumption near 11.7 million tonnes, soybean production of about 1.15 million tonnes supplies a domestic crush of 875,000 tonnes, and the country imports almost no soybean meal.[3, 28] Nigeria makes nitrogen fertiliser at world scale: Dangote's 3 million tonne urea complex and Indorama have made Nigeria a net exporter, with cumulative urea export earnings of about USD 2.2 billion (roughly N3.41 trillion) between 2023 and the first quarter of 2026, including USD 850 million in 2024 alone, and an expansion towards 9 million tonnes under way.[22]
The dependences that remain are specific. Poultry genetics rest on imported grandparent and parent stock, with recurring day-old-chick shortages; a USD 5.6 million local grandparent-stock investment with Aviagen has been proposed to import 116,800 grandparent chicks a year.[30] Dairy genetics, veterinary medicines and agrochemicals are largely imported. Phosphate and potash are imported. Roughly half of all slaughter cattle walk in from Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Mali across borders that coups and insecurity can close.[4] Nigeria exported urea while its farmers applied only 4.2 kg of fertiliser per hectare in 2023 because domestic logistics, credit and prices failed them.[8, 23] The operating urea complex and the Dangote refinery have ended Nigeria's reliance on imported urea and cut its reliance on imported fuel.
Access and affordability:
In 2025, 80.5 per cent of Nigerians, or 191.2 million people, .[7] nearly doubled from 10.7 per cent in 2015 to 19.9 per cent in 2023, and affected 33.8 per cent of under-fives in 2021.[32, 33, 37]
Food inflation reached 39.5 per cent year on year in July 2024, fell to 8.9 per cent in January 2026 as the naira stabilised, then rose to 12.1 per cent the following month.[25, 31] Conflict across the North East, North West and North Central left 33.1 million people projected to face acute food insecurity during the 2025 lean season.[6]
World food-price changes have limited direct reach across Nigeria's inland staple markets. ODI's analysis found African maize prices in 2007/08 moved independently of world prices; domestic harvests and regional restrictions matter more for cassava, yams, millet and sorghum.[44, 45] Currency depreciation is a major qualification: the naira fell from NGN 401 per dollar in 2021 to NGN 1,479 in 2024, while the FAO meat index rose just 6.1 per cent in dollar terms.[24, 46]
Domestic prices remain high. The food price index was 148.8 per cent above March 2022 levels in March 2026 while the FAO index fell 19.7 per cent from its peak; imported rice rose 270.3 per cent.[46, 47, 48] In 2025, white maize prices varied 60.1 per cent between their March high and December low, while black-eyed beans moved 84.5 per cent.[45, 48] Thirty eggs cost NGN 7,834 in May 2026, 19.4 hours at the NGN 70,000 monthly minimum wage, and a kilogram of tilapia cost 14.6 hours.[48, 49]
Shock endurance:
Nigeria's strategic grain reserve exists mostly on paper. The country operates 33 silos, 17 concessioned to private operators, but confirmed government-held stocks were about 60,000 tonnes in 2022 and 100,000 in 2023. The November 2024 release of 42,000 tonnes represented less than half a day of national grain use.[26, 27]
Ordinary price swings already have severe consequences. Maize prices rose 89.6 per cent in a year as poultry industry value fell 45 per cent and an estimated two million jobs were lost.[14] In parts of Katsina, acute malnutrition among under-fives doubled between 2023 and 2024, reaching 30 per cent in some local areas.[16] Protein availability is already below the adult requirement, leaving little room for further losses.[1]
Foreign reserves of USD 40.4 billion covered 7.1 months of imports in 2025, above the conventional adequacy threshold.[11, 34] The National Social Safety Nets Project reached 42 million of a targeted 56 million people with digital transfers.[36] External debt rose to 60 per cent of gross national income in 2024, reducing room for further borrowing.[35]
Farmers have adapted through homemade feed milling and cooperative bulk buying: within 18 months of the currency shock, a 25 kg bag of layer feed fell from USD 11 to USD 7, and egg prices fell from USD 4–5 to USD 3–3.40 a crate.[25] Substitution helps households cope, but at nutritionally inadequate levels.
Trajectory
Policy direction is more coherent than at any point in a decade, though execution risk is high. The Ministry of Livestock Development (2024) has inherited the National Livestock Transformation Plan with priorities in animal health, feed and fodder, water, breeding and basic statistics.[4] The National Dairy Policy (2023-2028) targets the USD 1.5 billion import bill.[20] A memorandum with JBS envisages USD 2.5 billion across six processing plants.[4] Dangote's fertiliser expansion and refinery remove long-standing import dependences, and the 2024 zero-duty import window showed the government will put supply before protecting farmers in a crisis.[3]
Safer access to farmland in the North West and Middle Belt would let farmers restore production. Applying more of Nigeria's domestically produced fertiliser could lift use above 20 kg per hectare; grain stocks need to cover more than the less-than-half-day volume released in 2024; local poultry breeding and aquaculture investment could also reduce imported genetics and help close the 2.5-million-tonne fish gap. The risks are equally clear: population growth of 3 per cent compounds every deficit, the 2027 election may favour short-term handouts over investment, and another naira collapse would repeat 2024's price shock for a larger population. Nigeria has land, feed and input industries. Safer access to farms, reliable finance and better transport would help turn that capacity into food households can afford.