The protein system
The twelve states have about 13.3 million people, and Papua New Guinea accounts for about three-quarters of the region's protein consumption.[1, 5, 60] Available protein ranges from 54.5 grams per person per day in the Solomon Islands and 62.2 in Papua New Guinea to 129.3 in Tonga and 119.0 in the Marshall Islands.[1] High supply can still depend on imports: animal foods provide 67.8 grams a day in Tonga, where domestic production covers only 14 per cent of animal-protein needs.[1]
Food comes from root crops, village livestock and local fisheries, supplemented by imports. Papua New Guinea's 2.06 million pigs produced 77,843 tonnes of pork in 2024, the region's largest livestock protein source.[2] Fish supply ranges from 7.1 kilograms per person a year in Papua New Guinea to 72.3 kilograms in Kiribati.[1]
The western and central Pacific tuna fishery landed a record 3,059,005 tonnes in 2024, 56 per cent of the global catch, and more than 80 per cent came from coastal-state waters.[6] It is the region's largest shared protein resource, yet little of that catch reaches Pacific island diets.
Durable domestic capacity:
Papua New Guinea's subsistence system supplies much of its protein with few purchased inputs. Local agriculture provides an estimated 76 per cent of protein, and food-balance estimates put total-protein self-sufficiency at 80 per cent and animal-protein self-sufficiency at 84 per cent.[13, 1] That makes the system less exposed to trade disruption, though remains high.
Output falls away across the smaller islands. Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands meet 96 and 89 per cent of protein supply from domestic production, and Fiji 73 per cent, but these ratios sit on low absolute supply. Samoa meets 23 per cent and Tonga 34 per cent, and the atoll states have little land-based production.[1, 2]
The tuna fishery is the region's great strength at sea. In 2024 all four assessed target stocks were neither overfished nor subject to overfishing, and skipjack spawning biomass stood at 51 per cent of unfished levels.[6] Most of the catch is exported, so it supports government revenue more than local diets.
Resource headroom:
Papua New Guinea has abundant land and rainfall, but customary tenure covers about 97 per cent of the country, and poor roads and limited extension services hold back development.[57] Cropland has expanded, yet population grew faster: cropland per person fell 28.7 per cent between 2000 and 2023.[58, 60] Irrigation is scarce and lending to agriculture is low.[58, 59] Targeted investment can work: the Productive Partnerships in Agriculture Project spent US$95.18 million on cocoa and coffee value chains, registered 60,494 households and beat its yield targets.[61]
The island states have very little farmland, from 0.01 hectares per person in the Marshall Islands to 0.19 in Tonga.[5] Coastal fisheries are under pressure. About half of reef fisheries are overexploited, and 16 of 22 Pacific island countries and territories are projected to fall short of current fish consumption from coastal stocks by 2030.[12] Tuna offers a larger managed resource, but climate change may shift it east: projections for ten Pacific states estimate a 13 per cent average fall in tuna biomass in their waters by 2050 under high emissions.[7]
Import exposure:
On trade ratios the region looks ordinary. Food is 16.5 per cent of Papua New Guinea's merchandise imports, 19.0 per cent of Fiji's and 23.7 per cent across Pacific island small states as a group, rising to 41.4 per cent in Kiribati.[4] On protein the picture splits. Papua New Guinea would lose mainly rice, at 1.9 per cent cereal self-sufficiency. Tonga and Samoa have animal-protein self-sufficiency of 14 and 10 per cent, Nauru and Tuvalu depend almost entirely on imports, and six members produce no cereals.[1]
Geography helps. No significant volume of Pacific food passes through Hormuz, Malacca, Suez or Panama, and the main suppliers, Australia and New Zealand, are three to ten days away.
The shipping channel is narrow. For the eleven smaller states, supply depends on liner rotations from Auckland or Suva. Some receive only 40 to 50 container-ship port calls a year, and Pacific small island states pay roughly twice as much as developed countries to move imports.[16] Tonga drew 25.1 per cent of all its imports from New Zealand in early 2026.[39]
Upstream dependence:
Papua New Guinea's subsistence food system uses few purchased inputs; total nitrogen imports were 25,215 tonnes in 2023.[3] The Napa Napa refinery provides 32,500 barrels a day of domestic refining.[38]
The small island states are the weak point. Oil products supply around 80 per cent of the region's total energy, and imported diesel generates over 90 per cent of electricity in some island systems.[16] Outboard motors, ice plants and cold chains all run on that fuel, so the coastal fishery that feeds these countries depends on imported inputs too.
The 2026 crisis showed how fuel shortages can interrupt fishing, refrigeration and freight even when food is available.[16, 17]
Access and affordability:
In Fiji, 58.0 per cent of people in 2025, down from 70.1 per cent in 2021 but above 50.6 per cent in 2017; a healthy diet cost 4.75 international dollars a day.[45]
Papua New Guinea shows serious hardship. Undernourishment affects 28.7 per cent of the population, and an IFPRI survey found that a healthy household diet costs 37 to 45 per cent of a low-skill worker's daily wage across seven locations.[46, 50] , an outcome with many causes, dietary and otherwise, is close to 50 per cent.[14]
Across the islands, cheap imported starch and oil keep calorie supply up while diet quality suffers, the pattern behind the region's high rates of obesity.[33] Solomon Islands and Vanuatu combine moderate undernourishment with high stunting,[46, 47] and inflation has run into double digits in Palau, Vanuatu, Tonga, Samoa and Kiribati since 2022.[48] Physical access adds to the strain: the same thin shipping rotations that limit imports also limit what reaches outer islands and Papua New Guinea's Highlands.[16]
Distance keeps world prices from reaching shops directly, but freight costs and thin markets can amplify shocks. Samoa's retail chicken price rose 21.5 per cent from 2021 to 2022, against a 10.0 per cent rise in the FAO Meat Price Index, and the gap remained after allowing for a weaker tala.[62, 63, 65] Between March 2022 and March 2026, food prices rose 30.0 per cent in Kiribati, 29.0 per cent in Samoa and 23.8 per cent in Micronesia, while the FAO Food Price Index fell 19.7 per cent.[62, 64] Samoan chicken cost 1.47 hours of work per kilogram at the minimum wage in July 2026.[65, 66]
Shock endurance:
Papua New Guinea's gardens absorb trade shocks but not drought. The 2015-16 El Nino affected around 2.7 million people, roughly 480,000 of them in the most severe food-shortage category,[15] and a strong El Nino is again considered possible in late 2026.[17]
Cyclones have repeatedly damaged crops across the island states. Cyclone Pam destroyed almost the entire national banana crop in Vanuatu in 2015,[35] Cyclone Winston caused up to 100 per cent crop damage in the worst-hit Fijian districts in 2016,[36] and Cyclone Harold affected 65 per cent of Vanuatu's population in 2020.[37] In 2026 a fuel shock alone was enough to cause a crisis: the Marshall Islands saw its fuel import bill rise about US$40 million, equal to 11.5 per cent of GDP, and cut its growth forecast from 4.1 to 2.0 per cent;[18, 20] Tuvalu declared a state of emergency on 14 April;[19] and Fiji's ministers took a 20 per cent pay cut.[17]
Reserves are reasonable. Papua New Guinea held US$4,062.2 million in gross reserves at the end of 2025, worth 7 months of total .[53, 56] Fiji and Solomon Islands held 4.4 and 8.9 months of cover in 2024, Tonga 10.8 months in 2024, Samoa 12.4 months in 2025 and Vanuatu 12.6 months in 2022.[52] Formal social protection is thin: programmes of meaningful size cover two of the region's twelve members.[51]
Fishing-licence revenue gives the smallest states room to respond to price shocks. Kiribati collected US$210.2 million in licence fees in 2024, about US$1,560 per head and more than 70 per cent of fiscal revenue.[9, 10, 11, 41] The Pacific Islands Forum emergency mechanism was invoked in 2026,[17] the World Bank provided rapid financing to the Marshall Islands in June,[20] and Australian and New Zealand disaster response has arrived within days of every major cyclone. Licence revenue could fall by up to US$140 million a year as tuna move east.[8]
Trajectory
The tuna catch creates scope to land more food for island markets through nearshore fish-aggregating devices, cold-chain investment and conditions in access agreements.[6] SolTuna shows both the potential and the limit: it processes about 25,000 tonnes a year, largely for export.[42] Energy matters next: the 2026 shock made electrification a food question, because in most of these states the cold chain, the fishing fleet and the freight all run on imported diesel.
Climate works against all of this. It is projected to move the tuna east, degrade the reef fisheries that feed outer islands, and strengthen the cyclones that can remove a national crop in one storm. More frequent shocks and uneven access to finance are likely to widen the gaps between countries.
Country notes
Papua New Guinea. Local agriculture supplies 76 per cent of protein, with an 84 per cent animal-protein ; undernourishment affects 28.7 per cent of people.[13, 1, 46]
Fiji. Protein supply is 87.0 grams per person per day, and animal-protein self-sufficiency is 75 per cent, mainly from poultry; dairy self-sufficiency is 13.7 per cent. In 2025, 58.0 per cent could not afford a healthy diet.[1, 2, 45]
Solomon Islands. The lowest protein supply at 54.5 grams per day, yet 89 per cent self-sufficient on root crops, pigs and fish;[1] access fees fund about 10 per cent of revenue.[8]
Vanuatu. Protein self-sufficiency is 96 per cent and animal-protein self-sufficiency 123 per cent, supported by village pigs and reef fish.[1] Cyclones remain a recurring threat: Pam destroyed almost the entire national banana crop in 2015, and Harold affected 65 per cent of the population in 2020.[35, 37]
Samoa. Production has collapsed: protein self-sufficiency is 23 per cent and animal protein 10 per cent, and the pig herd has halved since 2014.[1, 2]
Tonga. The highest protein supply at 129.3 grams per day and 14 per cent animal-protein self-sufficiency, despite the largest arable land per person in the region at 0.19 hectares.[1, 5]
Micronesia (Federated States of). Protein supply of 72.0 grams per day and no cereal production, while 166,000 tonnes of tuna are landed from its waters and exported.[1]
Marshall Islands. Arable land of 0.01 hectares per person, almost no animal-protein production, and a 2026 fuel shock equal to 11.5 per cent of GDP.[5, 18, 20]
Palau. It imports close to all its food[40] and has given up tuna revenue by closing 80 per cent of its waters to fishing from 2020.
Kiribati. 72.3 kilograms of fish per person a year and US$210.2 million of licence revenue funding over 70 per cent of the budget.[1, 9, 10, 4]
Nauru. Its interior is mined out, it produces almost no animal protein, and fishing licences provide the fiscal base.
Tuvalu. Fishing licences provide A$33.7 million of its A$47.1 million domestic revenue base.[11, 41] A fuel shortage led to a state of emergency on 14 April 2026.[19]