The protein system
FAO records 88.6 grams of protein available per person per day in 2023, including 43.3 grams from animal sources.[12] Domestic poultry, rice and potatoes anchor the diet; wheat is largely imported.[1]
Peru also has a large wild-capture export industry. It landed 5.76 million tonnes of wild fish in 2024 and produced 1.03 million tonnes of fishmeal in marketing year 2025, consuming only 15,000 tonnes and exporting the rest.[5, 14] Anchoveta accounts for 77 per cent of landings, and China took 79 per cent of fishmeal exports in 2023.[2, 6] In 2023, 6.68 million tonnes of fish and seafood were produced against 966,000 tonnes entering domestic supply.[9] Poor anchoveta seasons therefore cut export earnings and coastal employment, while most fishmeal is exported rather than used as food at home.
Durable domestic capacity:
Peru produced 78.6 per cent of its total protein supply and 91.1 per cent of its animal-protein supply in 2023.[9] Domestic output covers 95 per cent of chicken, all eggs, about 97 per cent of beef and 94 per cent of rice; milk covers 66 per cent of demand.[1, 5, 26, 27] Wheat is the main staple shortfall, with 92 per cent imported.[1]
Most capacity converts imported feed into poultry and eggs, so it would falter quickly if shipments stopped. The land base is also limited at 0.116 hectares of arable land per person.[16] Against those risks, the fishery is well managed: the OECD found 97 per cent of assessed stocks above biological sustainability limits, and FAO likewise considers anchoveta sustainable.[6, 8]
Low (6.9 per cent) and (11.5 per cent) coexist with moderate or severe food insecurity affecting 33.6 per cent of the population in 2023–25.[10, 16] The gap points to purchasing power and distribution as ongoing constraints.
Resource headroom:
The flagship fishery has little room to expand. The OECD classifies 76 per cent of assessed marine stocks as fully exploited.[6] In 2026, PRODUCE set the first north-central anchoveta quota at 1,914,049 tonnes, 36 per cent below the prior year's 3-million-tonne quota and the lowest in a decade.[20, 23] IFFO estimated this at 27 per cent of biomass, whose survey estimate was 35 per cent below March 2025 and 17 per cent below the 1996–2025 average for early-year surveys.[19]
National freshwater availability is high at 49,021 cubic metres per person per year, but most irrigated production and population sit on the arid Pacific coast.[16] Aquaculture produced 117,620 tonnes in 2024, below its 2021 level.[15]
Irrigation-equipped area increased 28 per cent between 2000 and 2024.[38, 40] Arable land fell 6 per cent in absolute terms and 27 per cent per person from 2000 to 2024, while cropland grew 21 per cent in total but fell 6 per cent per person.[38] Farms get about half the bank lending their share of the economy would suggest, down from about two-thirds in 2012.[39] Agrobanco disbursed 910 million soles to more than 70,000 producers in 2023.[41]
Irrigation projects show mixed delivery. Olmos developed over 22,000 of 43,500 planned hectares and generated an estimated USD 1 billion in Lambayeque agricultural exports in 2024.[42] Chavimochic III's 63,000-hectare expansion remained stalled after its contract was dissolved in 2022, then was re-tendered to Canada for a 2025 restart.[43, 44, 45, 46] Majes Siguas II, planned for 38,500 hectares, had completed 11 per cent of its works in 14 years; its concessionaire filed a USD 1.4 billion claim in 2024.[47, 48, 49] Peru's low ruminant share, 19.5 per cent of animal protein, limits resource demand, but fishmeal exports do not supply the feed land needed for poultry.[9]
Import exposure:
Peru imports about 21.4 per cent of its protein supply and exports a large marine surplus.[9] The exposure is commodity-specific: the cereal import dependency ratio is 52 per cent,[10] maize covers 73 per cent of consumption from imports,[1] and soybean meal is imported in full.[5]
Supplier concentration is severe. Argentina supplied close to 100 per cent of Peru's maize imports in 2025 at an average c.i.f. price of USD 209 per tonne, and Canada held 80 per cent of the wheat market with Argentina at 11 and the United States at 8 per cent.[1] Rice imports split between Uruguay at 49 per cent and Brazil at 41 per cent.[1] Argentine cargoes reach Callao and Paita round the southern tip of the continent, and Brazilian cargoes can take that route or the Panama Canal, so no single chokepoint controls supply.
The real risk is smaller than those shares suggest. Maize, wheat and rice all enter duty-free from every origin, United States maize is additionally exempt from the Peruvian Price Band under the 2009 trade promotion agreement, and Peru holds 21 free trade agreements with trading relationships spanning more than 200 countries.[1, 4] Argentina's share reflects freight and price advantage rather than an absence of alternatives, and Peru's largest single staple supplier, Canada, ships on a Pacific route with no chokepoint at all.
Upstream dependence:
Feed is Peru's biggest constraint. Peru's animal protein sector consumes about 5.65 million tonnes of maize as feed, 4.63 million tonnes of it imported, and 2.125 million tonnes of soybean meal, all of it imported against domestic production of at most 2,000 tonnes.[1, 5] FAOSTAT records zero domestic production of nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertiliser nutrients in every reported year, against 2023 imports of 373,565 tonnes of nitrogen, 92,296 tonnes of phosphate and 103,653 tonnes of potash,[11] and Peru appears among neither the world's ammonia[18] nor its potash producers.[28] Nitrogen application is thin at 35.85 kilograms per hectare of cropland,[11] which limits the yield damage a supply failure can do while confirming that Peruvian yields are already input-constrained. The moratorium on genetically engineered crops, extended in January 2021 to 31 December 2035, caps what domestic maize can contribute.[1]
During the 2022 fertiliser shock, urea imports fell 58 per cent below the seven-year average. China supplied 87,000 tonnes, or 26.7 per cent of urea imports, as well as 48.7 per cent of ammonium sulphate and 41.1 per cent of ammonium phosphate purchases.[24]
Peru physically controls two critical inputs. It mined 4.8 million tonnes of phosphate rock in 2025 against reserves of 210 million tonnes and supplies more than 99 per cent of United States phosphate rock imports,[17] so the phosphorus base is domestic even though finished fertiliser is bought abroad. One of its main suppliers is pulling back: China's phosphate exports fell by more than half between 2015 and 2025 as it kept supply for its own farms and battery makers.[56, 57] And it operates 124 licensed reduction plants producing roughly a million tonnes a year of fishmeal at 62 to 67 per cent protein while consuming 15,000 tonnes of it.[2, 5] No other country holds an owned feed-protein capability of that scale.
Access and affordability:
In 2024, 35.8 per cent of Peruvians , within the mid-30s range of 2021–23 and below the 45.9 per cent pandemic peak in 2020.[29] Undernourishment was 6.9 per cent and child stunting 11.5 per cent in 2023.[16, 30]
Inflation peaked at 8.33 per cent in 2022, then fell to 6.46 per cent in 2023 and 2 per cent in 2024.[25, 31] The food-inflation tracker recorded 3.32 per cent in June 2026, below its 5.88 per cent long-run average.[32] Poverty affected 36.2 per cent at the USD 8.30/day (2021 ) line in 2024.[34] Remote Amazon communities face long distances to markets and transport constraints.[35, 37]
Food prices rose 13.1 per cent in 2022 even though the sol rose 1.2 per cent against the dollar, as poultry producers faced higher costs for imported maize and soybean meal.[1, 51, 52]
Food prices have not retraced: Peru's index rose about 23 per cent between March 2022 and March 2026 while the FAO index fell 19.7 per cent.[52, 53] Lima retail chicken prices moved 17.9 per cent during 2025.[54] At the PEN 1,130 monthly minimum wage, a kilogram of chicken at the June 2026 price of PEN 9.54 cost about 2.03 hours of work.[54, 55]
Shock endurance:
Peru held USD 90.4 billion in reserves in 2025, enough for 10.4 months of imports, but had little public control over food stocks.[16] Rice is held by private mills without government oversight, while wheat and maize carry-out stocks cover roughly three weeks of consumption each.[1] A broad diet spanning poultry, eggs, wheat, rice and 25.9 kg of fish and seafood per person offers some substitution.[1, 13]
The 2023 El Niño cut capture fisheries output 34.4 per cent, from 5.37 to 3.52 million tonnes, after PRODUCE cancelled fishing seasons. The fishmeal industry lost about USD 1 billion, and domestic protein supply fell 2 per cent.[2, 12, 14] In 2022, the food and fertiliser shock left 16.6 million people without regular access to safe, nutritious food.[25] This represented 49.6 per cent of Peru's population in 2022.[16]
Peru's investment-grade ratings, Moody's Baa1 and S&P BBB-, both stable in 2024, keep market access open during a shock.[36] But cash-transfer programmes did not prevent widespread food insecurity in 2022.[25] Redirecting fishmeal toward domestic feed could supply about 660,000 tonnes of protein, compared with national supply of roughly 1.12 million tonnes; the existing plants make this technically possible.[2, 5] Weak reserve oversight and inconsistent delivery of household support limit that potential. Protein supply is 88.6 grams per person per day, about half above requirement.[12]
Trajectory
Fishery management is the key protection against a warming Pacific. A coastal El Niño alert has been in force since February 2026, with warm conditions projected through February 2027. Fishing was suspended on 12 May after landings reached 453,000 tonnes, 24 per cent of the quota, and the suspension was later extended because of juvenile fish.[21, 22] The OECD describes Peru's management system as near-real-time and well suited to climate change.[6] Sustained warming that erodes this capacity would threaten the country's protein supply.
Other opportunities are more prospective. Natural gas, phosphate rock and fishmeal could support domestic fertiliser and feed production; a urea plant, soybean crush, or policy reserving some fishmeal for local feed would reduce import dependence. Ending the biotechnology moratorium before 2035 could also raise maize yields from 5.12 tonnes per hectare and reduce imports.[1] Peru's ten sit against only three weeks of grain stocks. A funded public reserve, or better visibility into private stocks, would translate financial capacity into physical protection.