The protein system
The region's 37 million people live in very different places. Two members are large protein exporters. Switzerland imports about half its food and keeps large stocks. Iceland lives off its fisheries, and the Western Balkan countries depend on imports. Switzerland, Belarus and Serbia have about two thirds of the people.[15]
FAO records protein supply above 93 grams per person a day in every member, from 93.1 grams in Moldova to 151.7 in Iceland.[10] The difference is where it comes from. Belarus and Serbia grow more than they need, while Switzerland and several Western Balkan countries rely on imports.
Belarus and Serbia feed themselves. Belarus grew 8.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2025 and needed to import only 540,000 tonnes.[21] Official figures put its milk self-sufficiency at 300 per cent, meat at 140 per cent and eggs at 130 per cent.[25] Serbia expects 3.3 million tonnes of wheat, 1.5 million of it for export, and 7.1 million tonnes of maize, with 2.5 million for export and stocks.[22] The Western Balkan countries rely more on imports. Bosnia and Herzegovina imports about two thirds of its food and more than half its wheat.[23, 24] Albania imports about 60 per cent of its wheat, North Macedonia about 93 per cent of its poultry and Montenegro about 95 per cent of its cereals.[24] Most of the microstates produce little food. Liechtenstein is the exception.
Durable domestic capacity:
The regional average hides a split between members with surpluses and members that import. Belarus and Serbia eat 42 per cent of the region's food between them, and their surpluses protect their neighbours. Serbia's wheat stocks run near 800,000 tonnes at the end of the season,[22] and Belarus exported more than US$10 billion of food to 117 countries in 2025.[27]
Switzerland's figures show how imported feed changes the picture. It produced 50 per cent of its food in 2024, or 42 per cent after taking out food produced from imported feed. Both figures fell four points in one year after a poor crop harvest, and cereals were at 39 per cent.[1] Switzerland produced 93 per cent of its animal foods, including 106 per cent of its dairy, but only 58 per cent of its poultry. After taking out imported feed, the animal figure falls to 68 per cent.[1] Iceland produces 100 per cent of its food if exports are counted, but 53 per cent if they are not.[17, 19]
The question is whether output can hold. Drought has cut Serbia's maize crop three years running, and about 60 per cent of the 2024 crop was contaminated with aflatoxin, a mould poison.[22] Moldova's 2026 maize crop was about 30 per cent below average.[20] Capelin, normally a third of Iceland's catch, had no quota and no catch in 2024.[16] Each of the main producers faces a different shock.
Resource headroom:
Moldova (0.761 hectares), Belarus (0.607) and Serbia (0.393) have plenty of arable land per person. Switzerland (0.045), Montenegro (0.015) and Andorra (0.009) have very little.[13] Water is plentiful across much of the region.
Swiss livestock farming relies on imports. People eat 25.3 kg of pork and 17.5 kg of poultry a year from a small area of cropland, and Switzerland imported all 243,015 tonnes of its feed soya in 2024.[7, 11] Iceland relies on wild fish, and any growth would have to come from fish farms that need fishmeal.[16, 18]
The Balkans have land and room to raise yields, but fertiliser use varies widely: 137.8 kg per hectare in Serbia, 66.1 in Albania and 51.1 in Moldova, against 198.9 in Belarus.[14] Serbia has doubled its crop payments and added help with seed.[22] Farm lending there roughly matches farming's share of the economy, and irrigated land grew from 116,000 to 374,050 hectares between 2006 and 2024.[40, 41] USDA expects Serbian farmers to sow 250,000 hectares of soybeans in 2025/26, while Dutch farm advisers in the region report the soybean area down by up to half over five years.[22, 42]
Moldova's US$55 million AGGRI programme is repairing irrigation, including schemes at Ștefan Vodă and Briceni, but only 11 per cent of the money had been paid out by March 2025.[43] Irrigable land in Moldova has fallen from 16.5 to 11.7 per cent of arable land since 2000. In Belarus it fell from 2.0 to 0.5 per cent.[41] Most of the region's land advantage still depends on rain.
Import exposure:
Food reaches the region overland and from many places, so sea chokepoints matter little. Belarus imports about 540,000 tonnes of cereals a year for 9.1 million people.[21] Serbia imports 5,000 tonnes of wheat and exports 1.5 million. 30 per cent of its exports go by barge down the Danube to Constanța, and 70 per cent by rail and road.[22] Switzerland imports about half its calories, about 7 million tonnes of farm goods worth CHF 15 billion in 2022, but they arrive by several overland routes.[8] In 2024, 92.5 per cent of its feed soya came from Europe, mainly Italy (59 per cent), Ukraine (15 per cent) and Austria (8 per cent).[7]
Land routes keep the region away from distant sea chokepoints. But none of these states is in the European Union, so none can call on its support in a crisis or its farm policy. Many rely on one or two neighbours. Bosnia relies on Serbia and Croatia, Kosovo on North Macedonia and the Serbian border, Montenegro on Serbia and the port of Bar, and North Macedonia on Thessaloniki.
Upstream dependence:
Switzerland imports all its feed soya and more than 90 per cent of its feed grain. It also imports most of its nitrogen fertiliser and keeps compulsory stocks of it through Agricura.[4, 7, 9] Iceland imports all its fertiliser and almost all its feed grain.[18] Serbia buys about 800,000 tonnes of fertiliser a year from Russia, Ukraine, Croatia, Romania and Hungary.[22]
The 2026 closure of Hormuz raised world fertiliser prices by about 25 per cent. About 20 to 30 per cent of fertiliser exports and half of sulphur shipments normally pass through the strait.[29] Farmers in the region already use little fertiliser, so higher prices can mean lower yields.
Belarus is one of the world's largest potash producers, but sanctions and the loss of transit through the Lithuanian port of Klaipėda limit its exports.[28, 29] Its potash output fell to about 3 million tonnes in 2022, cutting its share of world potash from about 20 to 9 per cent. Export earnings fell from nearly US$2.5 billion in 2020 to just over US$1 billion in 2024.[28, 29] EU duties rise to EUR 350 a tonne by 2028, while the United States eased some potash sanctions in December 2025 and March 2026.[29, 30]
Access and affordability:
1.1 per cent of people in Switzerland and 0.7 per cent in Belarus , and these two countries have half the region's people. North Macedonia is highest, at 16.1 per cent, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina at 12.7, Albania at 12.6 and Moldova at 12.5.[33] is below 2.5 per cent in every member with figures except Albania, at 5.6 per cent.[34] ranges from 1.1 per cent in Belarus to 8.0 per cent in Montenegro.[35]
Kosovo, the poorest member with income of US$7,760 per person, also had the region's highest food inflation every month from March to December 2025. It peaked at 9.3 per cent in August and was still 8.6 per cent in December, against 1.5 per cent in February 2024.[36]
Food prices behave differently across the region. Serbian meat prices partly followed the rise in world poultry prices in 2021-22. Allowing for the fall in the dinar, prices in Serbia rose by about a third as much as world prices.[44, 47, 45] Serbian food inflation later peaked at 25.5 per cent in March 2023. In December 2025, food prices were still 32.7 per cent above March 2022, while world food prices had fallen 21.4 per cent.[45, 44, 46] Egg prices varied by 9.6 per cent during 2025.[44]
Switzerland and Liechtenstein soften price shocks with compulsory stocks and with tariffs and quotas on meat, dairy and eggs.[2, 9] Belarus has capped the prices of staple foods since October 2022, and added fruit and vegetables in 2025.[48] Minimum wages vary widely, from none at national level in Switzerland to much lower legal wages in Kosovo and Moldova, so what food costs a household depends on local pay. Getting food to people is hardest in the landlocked Western Balkans and in microstates that rely on one neighbour's roads. Bosnia's divided government also leaves it without a working national food reserve.[23, 24]
Shock endurance:
Switzerland has the region's strongest food reserve. On 1 January 2026 its compulsory stocks held 690,690 tonnes, including four months of wheat, rice, oils and fats, and two to three months of animal feed. The system costs about CHF 7 per person a year and also covers Liechtenstein.[2, 3, 5, 9] Serbia's reserve agency bought up to 30,000 tonnes of wheat in 2024 and swapped 25,000 tonnes of maize for livestock fattening. The country has about 550 silos holding 4.2 million tonnes.[22] Belarus has surplus exports it can keep at home, including six million tonnes of dairy.[26]
Other members have less to fall back on. Moldova and Kosovo hold no large food reserves. Iceland has no emergency food stocks and closed its only grain mill in early 2025.[15, 18] Switzerland's reserves covered 13.2 months of imports in 2024. Bosnia, Serbia, Albania and Moldova held 5.7 to 6.5 months, and Iceland, North Macedonia and Montenegro 3.5 to 4.8. Belarus and Kosovo were below the IMF's usual three-month benchmark, at 1.95 and 1.88 months.[37] In 2025, where figures exist, Belarus rose to 3.04 months and Kosovo fell to 1.82. There is no 2025 figure for Bosnia.[37] So the largest surplus producer and the poorest member have the thinnest financial cushions.
Swiss central government debt was 22.3 per cent of GDP in 2023-24, against 39.7 per cent in Bosnia, 34.3 per cent in Moldova, 50.0 per cent in Albania and 80.1 per cent in Iceland.[38] In 2020 Switzerland's short-time work scheme and Serbia's flat cash payments both grew within weeks, which shows support can expand under pressure. Protein supply across the region, at 117.2 grams per person a day, is about double what people need.
Trajectory
Belarus makes fertiliser on a world scale within rail reach of the region, but sanctions and EU duties rising to EUR 350 a tonne by 2028 keep much of it off local markets.[29]
The Balkans can choose to use more fertiliser. Serbia has set aside money to close its yield gap.[22] Kosovo spends 0.84 per cent of GDP on farming, against an EU average of 0.36 per cent, but 71 per cent of that goes on direct payments to farmers rather than investment.[31] Moving more support into irrigation, storage and soil could raise yields and protect harvests.
Food reserves outside Switzerland would be worth more than they cost. The Swiss system costs CHF 7 per person a year,[5] and Iceland has been advised to set one up.[18] Bosnia, Montenegro and Kosovo could not afford four months of stocks on the Swiss model, but two to three weeks of grain and feed would still help.
The climate works against all of this. Serbia has had three drought-hit maize crops in a row,[22] Moldova's 2026 maize crop fell 30 per cent short,[20] and Iceland caught no capelin in 2024.[16]
Country notes
Switzerland. Produced 42 per cent of its food in 2024, after taking out food produced from imported feed, on 0.045 hectares of arable land per person. Compulsory stocks of 690,690 tonnes are the region's strongest food reserve.[2, 13]
Iceland. A major fish exporter, landing 995,000 tonnes in 2024, but it grows about 1 per cent of its grain and has no emergency stocks or grain mill.[12, 16, 18]
Serbia. Grows surplus wheat and maize and 250,000 hectares of soybeans. Imported fertiliser and drought are its main limits.[22]
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Imports about two thirds of its food and more than half its wheat, and has no working national reserve.[23, 24]
Albania. Protein supply is ample at 114 grams per person a day, but it imports about 60 per cent of its wheat and 40 per cent of its poultry and pork.[10, 24]
North Macedonia. Landlocked. It grows about 70 per cent of its cereals but only about 7 per cent of its poultry. It spends more of its economy on farming than any other member.[24, 31]
Montenegro. Grows about 5 per cent of its cereals and about 25 per cent of its meat. Summer tourists roughly double demand.[24]
Kosovo. The poorest member, with income of US$7,760 per person, and the region's highest food inflation in 2025.[15, 36]
Belarus. A large surplus producer[21, 25] and fertiliser supplier, but exposed to sanctions and selling mostly to Russia and China.[27, 28, 29]
Moldova. Has the most arable land per person, but low fertiliser use, poor irrigation and the second-lowest income per person make it one of the most exposed members.[13, 14, 15]
Andorra. Only 0.009 hectares of arable land per person. Food comes mainly from Spain and France.[13]
Monaco. No farming. Its food comes through France.
San Marino. A small farm sector. It draws on Emilia-Romagna and Marche through its customs union with the EU.
Liechtenstein. Little farmland, but its customs union with Switzerland gives it access to Swiss food and fertiliser stocks.[9, 13]
Vatican City. No farming, arable land or food statistics. Its food comes from Rome.