The protein system
The seven countries have 119.1 million people. In 2023 they produced 5,822 thousand tonnes of protein and used 6,513 thousand tonnes, importing 1,488 thousand tonnes and exporting 1,046 thousand.[1] For animal protein the balance tips the other way: the region produces 6 per cent more meat, milk, eggs and fish than it uses.[1] Supply averages 77.8 grams of protein per person a day, 53.0 per cent of it from animal foods, about two-thirds of the United States level of 123.1 grams.[1]
The averages hide wide differences. Supply runs from 66.5 grams a day in Paraguay to 114.2 in Guyana.[1] Colombia produces 64 per cent of the protein it uses and Venezuela 70 per cent, while Guyana produces 128 per cent and Paraguay 187 per cent.[1] Colombia and Venezuela hold 68 per cent of the population. Paraguay and Bolivia hold 16.0 per cent and produce 40.6 per cent of the region's protein.[1] Paraguay has the region's lowest supply per person despite its huge output, because most of what it produces is exported.
In practice this is three farming systems. In the north, Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador run intensive poultry, pig and shrimp farms on imported grain. Colombia produces 2.15 million tonnes of chicken and 628,000 tonnes of pork, and Ecuador 1.24 million tonnes of farmed shrimp and 785,000 tonnes of wild-caught fish.[2, 26, 27] In the south, Paraguay and Bolivia keep 24.8 million cattle, largely on pasture, and grow rain-fed soy and maize for export.[25] On the Guiana coast, Guyana and Suriname grow rice: 683,000 and 155,000 tonnes of milled rice in , of which they export about two-thirds and over half.[2] The region produces 7.11 million tonnes of meat and 15.1 million tonnes of milk a year.[23, 24]
Durable domestic capacity:
Most countries grow enough of their staple. In MY2025/26 Paraguay grew 18 times the rice it used, Guyana nearly three times and Suriname more than twice. Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia grew roughly what they used.[2] Cattle herds are large for the population, from 30.3 million head in Colombia to 11.2 million in Bolivia.[25] Ecuador's fish and shrimp farms produced 1.24 million tonnes in 2024 for 18 million people, the most productive protein source in the region.[26]
The two countries with two-thirds of the people are the weakest producers. Colombia imports about 75 per cent of the cereals it uses, and FAO expects a below-average maize and rice crop in 2026, with maize area falling for a fourth year in a row.[3] Venezuela grows no wheat, produces only 56 per cent of the rice it uses, and harvests less grain than its 2010-2014 average of about 3.4 million tonnes.[2, 4]
Hunger is serious in several members. is 21.8 per cent in Bolivia, 12.1 per cent in Ecuador and 9.7 per cent in Suriname.[28] More than a third of people in Suriname and a third in Ecuador face moderate or severe food insecurity.[29] In Colombia, 6.6 million people need food assistance in 2026 and 7.1 million are displaced within the country.[3] In Venezuela, 7.9 million people needed humanitarian help at the end of 2025.[4]
Resource headroom:
Land and water are plentiful. Every member has at least ten times the water per person at which water stress begins, from 17,307 cubic metres in Paraguay to 293,317 in Guyana,[12] and almost all farming is rain-fed. Paraguay has 0.666 hectares of arable land per person and Bolivia 0.454.[30] Forest still covers 80 per cent of Guyana and 94.5 per cent of Suriname.[18, 19]
But the land is not where the people are. Colombia, with 0.049 hectares of arable land per person, and Ecuador, with 0.057, hold 59 per cent of the population.[1, 30] Between 2000 and 2024, cropland grew 81.7 per cent in Bolivia and 49.3 per cent in Paraguay, and grew per person too.[39, 41] Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador, with 82.8 per cent of the people, went the other way. Cropland per person fell 11.9 per cent in Colombia, 16.1 per cent in Venezuela and 46.6 per cent in Ecuador, even though all three irrigate a larger share of their land than Bolivia or Paraguay.[39, 41]
Plans to open new land have stalled. In 2014 Colombia set aside 5.19 million hectares of its eastern plains for farming, but disputes over land concentration have held it up for more than a decade, and large-scale expansion has not followed.[42] In Paraguay, 3.7 million hectares of Chaco forest have been cleared for cattle since 2001, and most of the beef goes to markets that do not require it to be deforestation-free.[43]
Some of the region's protein is light on resources. Much of the beef is raised on grazing land. Ecuador imported only 22,605 tonnes of fishmeal in 2024 to support 1.24 million tonnes of shrimp.[10, 26] Feed takes 12.3 per cent of the region's protein supply, rising to 31.5 per cent in Guyana and 29.7 per cent in Paraguay.[1] The weak point is the feed Ecuador's shrimp farms rely on: domestic soybean meal covers only 1 per cent of demand, and the rest comes from Argentina, Bolivia and the United States.[2]
Import exposure:
The region imports 23 per cent of its protein but only 9 per cent of its animal protein.[1] Most imports are feed and wheat, so the exposure runs through livestock farms before it reaches shoppers. By country, imports cover 46 per cent of protein use in Suriname, 38 per cent in Colombia, 32 per cent in Venezuela, 31 per cent in Guyana, 17 per cent in Ecuador, 7 per cent in Paraguay and 2 per cent in Bolivia.[1]
Colombia is the biggest concern because it relies on one supplier. In 2024, 99 per cent of its 6.85 million tonnes of maize imports and 84 per cent of its soybean meal came from the United States.[10] It needs to import 10.7 million tonnes of cereals in 2026, 17 per cent above the five-year average, including 8.2 million tonnes of maize. Much of that growth followed the end of maize tariffs under its trade agreement with the United States in 2023.[3] Ecuador spreads its risk more: its soybean meal comes from Argentina (47 per cent), the United States (30 per cent) and Bolivia (23 per cent), and its wheat from four countries.[10] Even so, its cereal import needs are more than 30 per cent above average,[5] and Venezuela's were 35 per cent above average in MY2025/26.[4]
The route to watch is a river, not a strait. In 2024, 86 per cent of Paraguay's 8 million tonnes of soybean exports went to Argentina,[10] because the Paraguay-Paraná waterway is its only practical way to Argentine crushing plants and deep-water ports. Fuel and fertiliser for Paraguay and Bolivia come in the same way, and all of Paraguay's 3.9 million tonnes of cereal exports in MY2025/26 go out on it.[7]
Otherwise the region avoids the world's main shipping chokepoints. Feed and wheat come on short routes from the US Gulf, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Peru, some of them overland or by river. The Panama Canal matters to some flows, and it has recovered from the 2024 drought: daily transits were 31.8 in 2019, 20.6 in early 2024 and 32.6 in the first half of 2026.[21]
Upstream dependence:
Almost all fertiliser is imported. Bolivia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay and Suriname import all the phosphate their farms use, and Colombia 79 per cent. Five of the seven import all their potash, and Colombia 82 per cent. Guyana, Paraguay, Ecuador and Suriname import all their nitrogen, and Colombia 87 per cent.[11] Only Bolivia and Venezuela make nitrogen fertiliser at scale. Bolivia's Bulo Bulo plant produced 167,717 tonnes of nitrogen in 2023 and exported 106,730 tonnes of it.[11]
The largest livestock sectors run on imported feed. For MY2026/27, Colombia is forecast to import 2.55 million tonnes of soybean meal and 8.6 million tonnes of maize, Ecuador 2.35 million tonnes of soybean meal, and Venezuela 975,000 tonnes of meal and 1.4 million tonnes of maize.[2] These imports keep chicken, pork and shrimp production going. They do not mean the food itself is scarce.
The region can supply part of this feed itself, and already does. Bolivia and Paraguay are forecast to produce 5.26 million tonnes of soybean meal in MY2026/27 and export 4.03 million tonnes, against regional imports of 5.94 million tonnes.[2] In 2024, 44 per cent of Bolivia's meal exports went to Colombia and 5 per cent to Ecuador.[10] Maize is harder. The region imports 10.2 million tonnes but its members export only 2.7 million tonnes to each other, leaving a gap of 7.5 million tonnes that only the United States, Brazil or Argentina can fill.[2]
Access and affordability:
In the six countries with figures, holding 76.2 per cent of the region's people, 30.1 per cent in 2024.[31] The share was highest in Colombia, at 36.6 per cent, and lowest in Bolivia, at 9.5 per cent, and Guyana, at 10.0 per cent.[31] Bolivia's low figure sits oddly beside the region's highest undernourishment, 21.8 per cent, and its second-highest , 16.1 per cent in 2016.[28, 32] Across all seven, undernourishment is about 7.5 per cent and stunting about 13.5 per cent.[28, 32]
Prices have behaved very differently from country to country. Bolivia's inflation rose from 2.6 per cent in 2023 to 19.5 per cent in 2025, driven by shortages of dollars and diesel, while Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Guyana all kept 2025 inflation under 6 per cent.[33] Venezuela's prices rose 475 per cent over 2025 on the IMF's April 2026 estimate, or 252 per cent on the annual-average measure used for the others.[35]
In the three largest countries, with 82.8 per cent of the people, getting food to people is also a problem of safety and transport, not only price. Colombia has conflict and displacement, Venezuela has fuel and transport breakdowns, and Ecuador's gang violence has disrupted roads and ports since January 2024.[3, 4, 5, 34]
World price rises reach Colombian shoppers slowly but substantially. During the 2007/08 price spike, short-term maize prices in Colombia did not follow world prices, and the domestic rise was smaller, as in Mexico.[44] Over a full year the effect is larger. Food prices rose 25.0 per cent between 2021 and 2022, against a 30.7 per cent rise in world prices measured in pesos.[45, 46] A 13.7 per cent fall in the peso against the dollar explains part of that rise.[45] Colombian food prices have also stayed high. They rose about 37.9 per cent between March 2022 and March 2026, while the FAO Food Price Index fell 19.7 per cent.[46, 47] Rice prices are steady within the year, varying 7.5 per cent in 2025, and a kilogram cost about half an hour's work at the 2026 minimum wage, at COP 3,970 in August 2026.[48, 49]
The pattern differs elsewhere. In Venezuela, food prices follow the collapse of the currency rather than world markets. Ecuador uses the US dollar, so exchange-rate swings do not feed into food prices. In Paraguay and Bolivia, which export soy, beef and maize, local prices follow export prices, as in Brazil and Argentina.
Shock endurance:
Stocks are thin where they are most needed. No country publishes a strategic food reserve. In MY2025/26, maize stocks covered about 10 days of use in Ecuador, 14 in Colombia and 18 in Venezuela, against 33 in Paraguay and 44 in Bolivia. Soybean meal stocks covered 27 days in Colombia and 35 in Ecuador, against 243 in Bolivia.[2]
The main weakness is money to pay for imports in a crisis. Reserves cover 7.3 months of imports in Colombia and 5.6 months in Paraguay, but only 2.9 months in Ecuador, under four weeks in Guyana and about two weeks in Bolivia.[12] Only Paraguay is rated investment grade by both S&P and Moody's (BBB- and Baa3). Colombia sits on the line, at BB- and Baa3. Ecuador (B- and Caa1), Bolivia (CCC+ and Ca) and Suriname (CCC+ and Caa1) are rated well below, and Venezuela has defaulted and lost its rating.[36] Income per person is USD 3,860 in Venezuela and 4,420 in Bolivia, against 28,470 in Guyana.[12, 13]
Recent shocks have been hard to absorb. Venezuela still has 7.9 million people needing help after five years of growth.[4] Bolivia's shortage of dollars and diesel delayed planting for two seasons before easing for 2026, and in October 2025 wheat flour in Santa Cruz still cost 40 per cent more than a year earlier and rice over 20 per cent more.[6] Ecuador's economy shrank 2 per cent in 2024 before growing 3.7 per cent in 2025.[14]
Governments have shown they can get help to households quickly. In 2020 Colombia added 3 million households to its Ingreso Solidario cash-transfer scheme and gave extra payments to 2.6 million poor households, backed by a USD 700 million World Bank loan.[37] Bolivia's USD 254 million emergency safety-net programme reached about 3.6 million people the same year.[38]
A cut in feed imports would change which meats people eat, not leave them short of protein. Animal foods supply 53 per cent of the region's protein, and much of that needs no imported feed, above all grass-fed beef and wild fish.[1] Beans and other pulses add another 5 per cent.[1] The countries that could replace lost feed are neighbours: Bolivia and Paraguay already sell soybean meal to Colombia and Ecuador, and FAO put part of a 6.2 per cent fall in world maize prices in June 2026 down to plentiful South American supply.[2, 10, 20] World cereal prices were moderate in June 2026, with FAO's Cereal Price Index at 110.2, while its Meat Price Index reached a record 131.0, which helps the region's beef exporters.[20] At 77.8 grams a day, regional protein supply is about a third above the 58-gram reference requirement.[1]
Trajectory
The biggest question is whether the region can feed its own livestock. Bolivian and Paraguayan crushing plants already make almost as much soybean meal as the region imports, and existing sales to Colombia show the trade works.[2, 10] Most of Paraguay's soybeans, 86 per cent, still go to Argentina as whole beans.[10] Crushing more of them for regional feed would cut reliance on imported meal. Transport costs and price are the main obstacles.
Fertiliser is harder to fix. Bulo Bulo is the only large nitrogen plant, and it already exports two-thirds of its output.[11] There is no large phosphate or potash deposit anywhere in the seven, so the region will keep importing. What can change is how many suppliers it buys from and how much it keeps in store, and no member publishes either.
The financial picture is mixed. Bolivia, with about two weeks of , cannot absorb a price shock, and Venezuela cannot borrow abroad. Guyana is moving the other way: oil output is projected above 1.3 million barrels a day by 2027,[18] and rice harvests are at records.[2] How much this strengthens its food system depends on how the Natural Resource Fund is spent. Colombia is the largest risk. A fourth year of falling maize area, 14 days of maize stocks and 99 per cent reliance on one supplier make it the region's most fragile point, and it holds the most people.
Country notes
Colombia. The region's largest consumer depends heavily on US maize and soybean meal, with only 14 days of maize stocks.[1, 2, 10]
Venezuela. Years of crisis have cut food production and purchasing power, though cattle, milk and nitrogen fertiliser production remain substantial.[11, 24, 25]
Ecuador. Shrimp exports anchor a highly productive protein system. Use of the US dollar removes currency risk, but soybean meal is almost all imported.[2, 10, 26]
Bolivia. Strong soy, maize and nitrogen production[2, 11] sits beside a landlocked position, a shortage of dollars[6, 12, 15] and the region's highest undernourishment.[28]
Paraguay. Most of its large soy, maize and beef surplus is exported, leaving the region's lowest protein supply per person. Access to the river is its key vulnerability.[1, 2, 7, 10] Public debt was 41.3 per cent of GDP and growth reached 6.6 per cent in 2025.[16]
Guyana. Oil has quickly raised purchasing power while rice production reaches records,[2, 9] but feed and fertiliser are imported and the Essequibo dispute adds risk.[2, 12, 18]
Suriname. Rice and wild-caught fish anchor a small food system,[1, 2, 27] but food insecurity is high,[29] much food is imported and the government has little fiscal room.[12, 19]