The protein system
The eight members feed about 237 million people.[1] Six of them, with 97.3 per cent of the population, have protein supply figures. Across those six, supply averages 79.2 grams per person a day, 30.6 grams of it from animal foods.[1] The range is wide, from Malaysia at 93.3 grams, 54.65 of them animal, to Cambodia at 64.4 and 21.89.[1]
Fish and other seafood carry the load. In 2023 the eight members caught 5,255,030 tonnes of wild fish and shellfish and farmed 2,695,261 tonnes, about 34 kg per person by live weight. They also farmed 1,853,032 tonnes of seaweed, which supplies little protein.[2] That matters most in the Philippines, where 68 per cent of farmed output by weight is seaweed.[2]
The region grows about as much rice as it eats, and is slipping. It produced 36.0 million tonnes in 2025/26 and ate 37.0 million, so it grew 97.2 per cent of its needs.[4] But the surplus sits in the wrong places. Myanmar exports 2.3 million tonnes and Cambodia 3.4 million. In 2025, 41 per cent of Myanmar's rice exports went to China, 24 per cent to the EU and 7 per cent to Madagascar, against 4.4 per cent to the Philippines.[44] Another 6.85 million tonnes of Cambodian rice crosses the border unmilled, and USDA counts it as Vietnam's.[33, 5] Members short of rice buy from India, Vietnam and Thailand, all outside the region. , which has many causes beyond diet, still affects about a quarter of children under five, and 46.7 per cent in Timor-Leste.[7]
Durable domestic capacity:
The Philippines, with 49 per cent of the region's people,[1] is the problem. It grew 71.7 per cent of its rice in 2024, the lowest share since 1988, and imported a record 4.74 million tonnes.[9] It imports 37 per cent of its meat, including 44 per cent of its pork and 62 per cent of its beef.[4] Its fish output fell for a third year running to 3,956,913 tonnes in 2025, 7.1 per cent below 2023. Small-scale coastal catches fell 6.7 per cent.[10] Malaysia now grows 52.9 per cent of its rice, down from 62.1 per cent in 2020, and imports 83.5 per cent of its beef.[17, 18] Singapore's farms supply a small share of its food,[22] and Brunei grows about 8.5 per cent of its rice.[26]
War is cutting output in Myanmar. It has 23 per cent of the region's people and is its second-largest producer, with 1.62 million tonnes of wild catch, 1.20 million tonnes of farmed fish and 2.3 million tonnes of rice exports.[2, 4] Yet WFP expects 12.4 million of its people to face acute hunger in 2026. 3.6 million are already displaced, and 4 million are expected to be by the end of the year.[29, 30] FAO's estimate of people facing acute hunger is nearer 8.5 million.[25] IFPRI's survey of 2,734 farmers found yields down 8 per cent in the 2025 monsoon season and profit per acre down 40 per cent, to a six-year low.[31]
Resource headroom:
The mainland has plenty of water, but farmland is scarce. Renewable freshwater ranges from 4,203 cubic metres per person a year in the Philippines to 25,188 in Laos. Every member except Singapore is far above the 1,700 cubic metre level where water stress begins.[6] Land is the opposite: 22.93 million hectares of arable land for 237 million people, about 0.097 hectares each, roughly half the world average.[3]
The real limits are feed and wild fish. The region imports 6.71 million tonnes of maize and 10.54 million tonnes of wheat a year as well as soybean meal. About 3.3 million tonnes of the Philippines' wheat goes to animal feed.[4] So more chicken, pork and farmed fish means more imported feed. Meanwhile the wild fish that supply the cheapest protein are past their peak. Fish stocks in the South China Sea are down 70 to 95 per cent since the 1950s, and catch rates are down 66 to 75 per cent over 20 years.[39] Malaysia's sea fish stocks fell in five of the last six years.[19] In the Philippines, fish farming fell 1.9 per cent in 2025 and commercial catches 2.2 per cent.[10]
Water figures count the Mekong as each country's own. But how much water reaches farms and fisheries downstream, and when, depends on decisions upstream. The Mekong River Commission projected fish stocks down 35 to 40 per cent by 2020 and 40 to 80 per cent by 2040 as dams are built.[41] Its modelling shows the silt reaching the delta falling 67 per cent under 2020 dam plans and 97 per cent under 2040 plans, leaving 3 per cent of the 2007 level.[46] WWF records an 88 per cent collapse in fish numbers in Cambodia's Tonle Sap lake, which produces about 2 per cent of the world's freshwater catch.[40] Water is plentiful on paper, but dams upstream are cutting the water and fish that reach farms and fisheries downstream.
Irrigation grew in seven members, from 20.4 to 25.5 per cent of arable land between 2000 and 2024. Malaysia reached 52.0 per cent, and the Philippines rose from 27.0 to 38.6 per cent. Cambodia fell from 7.3 to 6.5 per cent, because its farmland grew faster than its irrigation.[60] In Cambodia, farms got about 85 per cent of the bank lending their share of the economy would suggest in 2024. Farms in the Philippines and Malaysia get less than their share, and in Timor-Leste almost nothing.[61] Across the region, arable land grew 11.5 per cent between 2000 and 2024, but the population grew 40.0 per cent, so land per person fell 20.3 per cent.[60, 62]
Malaysia's national farm policy shows the limit plainly. It aimed for 75 per cent rice self-sufficiency by 2025 and reached 52.9 per cent. Its Agriculture Ministry blames this partly on irrigation upgrades reaching only a small share of the rice land that needs them.[63, 64] The Philippines shows the same limit from the other side. A rice fund put PHP 60 billion into farm machinery, seed and advice between 2019 and 2025. A 2026 review found that farmers in the scheme got higher yields, yet the country's rice self-sufficiency fell to a 37-year low over the same years.[65, 66, 9]
Import exposure:
The seven members other than Timor-Leste imported about 0.67 million tonnes more rice than they exported in 2025/26. That is forecast to rise to 1.90 million tonnes in 2026/27.[4] The imports are concentrated. The Philippines is forecast to import 5.6 million tonnes in 2026/27, more than any other country in the world.[4] Malaysia's food import bill reached RM 93.8 billion in 2024, and it imports 57.9 per cent of its food.[18] Singapore imports more than 90 per cent of its food, including 96 per cent of its pork.[22, 4] Brunei also imports most of its rice.[4, 26]
Geography helps. Elsewhere, sea chokepoints define a country's risk. This region sits on top of one. Singapore and Malaysia's west-coast ports are on the Strait of Malacca, which carries about 29 per cent of the world's seaborne oil. The Philippines faces the open Pacific, and Myanmar the Bay of Bengal.[43] Vietnam and Thailand are close by, so supply routes are short and many.
But neighbours have cut supply at short notice. In June 2022 Malaysia stopped exporting 3.6 million live chickens a month, when it supplied about a third of Singapore's chicken.[48] The Philippines stopped rice imports for four months from 1 September 2025, under Executive Order 93 and then Executive Order 102 to 31 December, after farm rice prices fell to PHP 8 to 10 a kilogram against costs of PHP 12 to 14.[13, 47] Neighbours put their own farmers first. Singapore's largest rice supplier is now India, with 42 per cent in 2025. Thailand and Vietnam together supplied 51 per cent.[44] India also supplies 83 per cent of Malaysia's frozen beef imports and close to three quarters of all its beef.[44, 18] Malaysia supplies 60 per cent of the Philippines' fishmeal, and Chile and Peru together less than 5 per cent.[44]
Upstream dependence:
Farm inputs are the region's weak point. Almost all protein feed is imported,[4] and nearly every member imports its fertiliser. The Philippines buys about 90 per cent of what it uses, on a market worth US$3.6 billion in 2025.[15]
The 2026 crisis in the Strait of Hormuz showed what that costs. Urea rose above US$850 a tonne in April 2026, 80 per cent above February, and the World Bank expects fertiliser prices to rise more than 30 per cent over the year.[36] FAO warns that even a few weeks' delay forces farmers to use less fertiliser or none, with the effects arriving in late 2026 and into 2027.[37] ESCAP puts oil prices in the region up about 45 per cent and gas about 55 per cent since late February 2026.[38] Myanmar shows how this reaches farms. Between 2023 and 2025 urea rose 23 per cent and spending on inputs per acre rose 63 per cent, while the price farmers got for rice fell 6 per cent.[31]
Fertiliser plants in the region now make up some of the gap. PETRONAS's Sipitang plant in Sabah can make 3,850 tonnes of urea a day from 2,100 tonnes of ammonia, and it has more urea capacity at Gurun and Bintulu.[20] Brunei Fertilizer Industries turns 2,200 tonnes of ammonia a day into 3,900 tonnes of urea, and made more than a million tonnes in 2023.[21] Those two plants alone can make about 2.6 million tonnes a year, well above what the region uses. Asia-Potash's mine in Khammouane, Laos, reached three million tonnes of capacity in December 2025.[34, 35] Malaysia and Brunei supplied 137,900 of the 395,000 tonnes of urea the Philippines imported in the first half of 2025.[14] That is why the 2026 Gulf crisis reached Philippine farmers as higher prices, not empty stores.
Access and affordability:
In 2024, 47.4 per cent of people in the Philippines and 51.9 per cent in Laos , against 1.6 per cent in Malaysia.[50] averaged 3.8 per cent across five members in 2023, and 18.7 per cent in Timor-Leste.[8] Child stunting ranges from 4.5 per cent in Singapore (2000) to 46.7 per cent in Timor-Leste (2020).[7]
Food inflation reached 5.20 per cent in the Philippines and 7.69 per cent in Cambodia in mid-2026.[51, 53] In Laos it peaked at 52.69 per cent in May 2023, as the kip fell from about 9,000 to more than 21,500 to the dollar between 2020 and 2025.[54] War puts a quarter of Myanmar's people at risk of acute hunger, and typhoons destroyed crops in the Philippines in October and November 2025.[29, 56] Food inflation stayed low in Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei.[52, 55]
Timor-Leste has the region's highest stunting and undernourishment. Its US$18.75 billion Petroleum Fund gives it a financial cushion.[59]
The Philippines has nearly half the region's people and is the world's largest rice importer. ODI estimated that 20 to 30 per cent of the 2007/08 rise in world rice prices reached Philippine prices, against 44 per cent in Cambodia. The 2019 Rice Tariffication Law later opened the Philippines further to imports.[67, 68] Between 2021 and 2023 the peso lost 12.9 per cent against the dollar, and Philippine food prices rose 12.8 per cent.[69, 70]
In March 2026 Philippine food prices were 22.5 per cent above March 2022, while world food prices were 19.7 per cent lower.[70, 71] Malaysia subsidises and controls rice prices. Food prices in Myanmar and Laos were still 188.7 and 110.1 per cent above March 2022.[70, 54] In 2025, rice prices in Philippine shops varied by 16.5 per cent between January and October. Wholesale rice prices varied by 23.1 per cent in Phnom Penh, 9.5 per cent in Yangon and 2.2 per cent in Laos.[72]
On the lowest provincial minimum wage, a Philippine worker could buy 1.1 kg of pork a day at the July 2026 national average price.[73] Myanmar's daily minimum wage of MMK 4,800 bought 1.2 kg of pulses at the June 2026 price in Mawlamyine.[74]
Shock endurance:
A varied diet is the region's main buffer. Reserves and buying power are weak. The ASEAN Plus Three emergency rice reserve sets aside 787,000 tonnes, only 87,000 of them from ASEAN members. The region eats about 101,000 tonnes of rice a day, so the ASEAN share covers less than a day.[42] The Philippine national rice buffer held 337,618 tonnes on 7 May 2026, 8.74 days of demand, below the nine-day legal minimum. The state had bought 13,127 tonnes against a January target of 313,315.[11, 12] Singapore requires licensed rice importers to keep stocks in line with what they import.[24, 49]
Most people have little buying power. Singapore and Brunei are rich but have only 2.7 per cent of the region's people. Most live in members with far lower incomes.[45] The region produces rice, freshwater and sea fish, poultry, pork and pulses, so people can switch between foods. World rice markets are also well supplied, with record trade forecast for 2026/27 and world stocks of 192.8 million tonnes.[5]
Reserves covered 7.33 months of imports in the Philippines and 7.65 months in Cambodia in 2024.[57] Laos had 2.17 months of cover in 2023, and the IMF's 2024 estimate was nearer 1.7 months. Its government debt was about 88 per cent of GDP in 2025. The kip fell from about 9,000 to more than 21,500 to the dollar between August 2020 and October 2025, and a January 2025 survey found a third of households cutting spending on food, health or education.[58]
Of the 12.4 million people in Myanmar expected to face acute hunger in 2026, 1 million are at emergency levels, and 400,000 young children and mothers are acutely malnourished.[29, 30] Rice prices were 5.2 per cent higher in June 2026 than a year earlier, and fuel and fertiliser also cost more.[31, 32] In the Philippines, African swine fever fell from 98 villages with active cases at the end of 2025 to 27 by 6 February 2026, and pork output is forecast to rise 1.5 per cent to 990,000 tonnes.[16, 4]
Trajectory
Livestock farming depends on 5.26 million tonnes of imported soybean meal, and the region has few other sources.[4] Malaysia, Brunei and Laos are building up fertiliser production, and a planned potash expansion in Laos could in time make it an exporter.[34, 35]
Wild catches are falling across the South China Sea, the Mekong and Philippine coastal waters.[39, 40, 46, 10] That means less local fish and more reliance on farmed fish and meat, which run on imported feed. Singapore has revised its 2035 targets for local food production.[23] Myanmar's food supply will depend on the course of the war.
Country notes
Philippines. The largest member grows too little rice, its fisheries are shrinking and it has the region's biggest rice import bill.[1, 9, 10]
Malaysia. The region's best supply of animal protein, alongside falling rice self-sufficiency and heavy reliance on imported beef.[1, 17, 18]
Myanmar. Large fisheries[2] and rice exports[4] alongside war, mass displacement and acute hunger.[25, 29, 30]
Cambodia. A surplus of rice, much of it sold unmilled, alongside low protein supply and shrinking irrigation coverage.[1, 3, 33, 60]
Laos. Plenty of water[6] and new potash mining,[34, 35] offset by child stunting[7] and little money to pay for imports in a crisis.[45]
Singapore. More than 90 per cent of food is imported, and licensing rules require rice importers to hold stocks.[22, 24]
Brunei. Still imports most of its rice, though its own food production has grown 41 per cent in eight years. Its fertiliser plant supplies its neighbours.[4, 21, 26, 27]
Timor-Leste. The region's highest child stunting[7] and undernourishment,[8] low protein supply[1] and about 60 per cent of cereals imported,[28] alongside a large Petroleum Fund.[59]