The protein system
Thailand supplies 68.63 grams of protein per person per day, including 27.18 grams from animal foods. Rice and fish are major sources; poultry and pork dominate meat supply. is 4.6 per cent, while is 12.4 per cent.[1, 2] The FAO balance sheet puts total-protein self-sufficiency at 80.5 per cent in 2023, rising to 106.4 per cent when imported soybeans for crushing are excluded; animal-protein self-sufficiency is 120.9 per cent.[1]
Thailand is a major chicken and rice exporter: 2026 chicken output is forecast at 3.575 million tonnes, and rice milling reached 20.3 million tonnes against domestic use of 12.8 million.[3, 4] In 2024 it landed 1.65 million tonnes of wild fish and farmed another 1.00 million.[2] Yet feed demand of 22.05 million tonnes relies on imported soymeal and maize; crushing imports adds 2.34 million tonnes of soybean meal to the 3.0 million tonnes imported directly.[5] Fertiliser imports reached 6.23 million tonnes in 2024, and 58 per cent of crude oil and 24 per cent of LNG arrive through Hormuz.[7, 9, 12] Agricultural exports reached THB 1.54 trillion against THB 610 billion of imports from January to October 2024.[21]
Durable domestic capacity:
Thailand is one of Asia's largest protein producers, but its marine fisheries and shrimp sector have weakened sharply. Marine capture was fished beyond the regulator's own reference point for decades up to 2014. Catch per unit effort has fallen from about 295 kilograms per hour in 1963 to under 20, and more than 40 per cent of the marine catch is low-value or juvenile fish.[16] Indo-Pacific mackerel landings collapsed from over 160,000 tonnes in 1999 to 27,000 in 2020, and Thailand now buys in roughly 200,000 tonnes of mackerel a year.[17] The Department of Fisheries works to a maximum sustainable yield reference of 1.5 million tonnes; catches ran 32.8 per cent above it before the European Union's 2015 illegal-fishing yellow card, and the commercial fleet was cut from over 13,000 vessels to about 10,000 by 2021 in response.[17]
Shrimp repeats the pattern in a farmed sector. Official vannamei output was 232,807 tonnes in 2025 against a 2011 peak near 600,000, thirteen years after acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease halved the industry, with white spot and yellow head virus outbreaks recorded again in 2025.[14, 15] Neither sector can sustain its past output.
Resource headroom:
Thailand has 0.221 hectares of arable land and 3,130 cubic metres of freshwater per person a year, and withdraws 23 per cent of its internal renewable water.[2] Cassava and maize provide a substantial feed-energy base.[1] Since 2000, however, arable land has fallen 10.4 per cent in area and 21.2 per cent per person; cropland is up 2.9 per cent overall but down 9.6 per cent per person.[46, 51]
Irrigation has not expanded since 2010: 6.415 million hectares are equipped, short of the 7.023 million hectare target set around 1999.[46, 52] Its share of arable land rose from 31.8 to 40.8 per cent only because the land base shrank.[46] The state-owned Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives has a THB 1.66 trillion loan book serving most farm households.[47, 49] More than 90 per cent of agricultural households carry debt averaging THB 450,000; over half have debt-to-income or debt-to-asset ratios above 100 per cent.[48]
A quarter of domestic cereals already goes to livestock, and cultivation has shifted towards rubber and oil palm.[1, 2] The farm workforce is ageing: workers aged 65 and over rose from 4.5 to 16.7 per cent between 1980 and 2008.[50] Aquaculture uses nearly 60 per cent of Thai aquafeed output, while fishmeal supply has peaked and imports fill much of the gap.[5, 7, 16, 26]
Import exposure:
On protein for human consumption Thailand's direct exposure is low. Food was 14.7 per cent of merchandise exports against 6.6 per cent of merchandise imports in 2024,[2] and rice, chicken, pork, eggs and most fish are domestic. Thailand imported 4.03 million tonnes of wheat, led by Ukraine at 34.6 per cent, with Australia and the United States at 15.0 per cent each, Bulgaria at 13.6, Canada at 6.6 and Brazil at 6.2. It imported 466,000 tonnes of fish, meat and bone meals from 33 partners.[7] Wheat comes from many suppliers, but the largest is a country at war. Maize imports of 2 million tonnes came 86.5 per cent from Myanmar and 12.6 from Laos, concentrated yet overland and therefore indifferent to maritime chokepoints.[7] Dairy is the one dietary gap, at about 52 per cent protein self-sufficiency.[1]
The exception is the commodity the system cannot substitute. Brazil supplied 91.4 per cent of Thailand's soybean meal imports and 87.2 per cent of its soybean imports in 2024.[7] USDA's Bangkok post estimated Brazil supplied 95 per cent of soymeal imports and 90 per cent of bean imports in MY2023/24.[5, 6] All of it moves by sea from the South Atlantic through the Malacca or Sunda straits, so geography compounds the concentration. Thai exposure also runs outward: food exports to the Middle East are forecast to fall 50.7 per cent across 2026, the steepest decline of any market, with canned tuna 17.4 per cent and rice 13.3 per cent dependent on it.[13]
Upstream dependence:
Thailand imports all nitrogen fertiliser and has no operating potash mine.[22, 23] Of the 3.17 million tonnes of nitrogen products imported in 2024, 49.0 per cent came from producers loading inside the Strait of Hormuz.[7] The route was disrupted in 2026, when outbound shipments fell close to zero from early March to June.[29]
Five Thai fertiliser cargoes were stranded behind the closure, and flows resumed after an interim settlement in June.[10, 31] Domestic granular urea reached 17,000 baht per tonne in March, while a 50-kilogram bag of retail 46-0-0 rose from about 800 baht to 1,200-1,400 baht.[8, 9, 30] These prices show how a shipping disruption reaches farmers.
Feed protein is the same dependence in a different commodity: 51,000 tonnes of domestic soybeans on 31,000 hectares against 4.25 million tonnes of imports, with transgenic cultivation still banned.[5] Feed wheat adds 3.5 million tonnes of imports and maize 1.0 to 1.8 million.[3]
Laos supplied 26.7 per cent of Thailand's 924,495 tonnes of potash imports in 2024; Canada supplied 32.1 per cent and Belarus 17.3 per cent.[7] Stocks fell from 1.52 million tonnes in January 2026 to 1.116 million by 15 March, and manufacturers reduced urea in blends.[10] In March, estimates of how long stocks would last ranged from about one month to August.[8, 10, 33] Charoen Pokphand Foods operates across 11 countries, but its feed mills serve their countries of production rather than supplying Thailand.[18]
Access and affordability:
Moderate or severe food insecurity was 5.4 per cent in 2023, down from 7.1 per cent in 2021 but above 2018's 4.7 per cent.[53] Undernourishment was 4.6 per cent; stunting was 12.4 per cent in the World Bank series and 13 per cent in the 2022 national survey, within the WHO's medium band.[2, 37] Food inflation eased from 8.87 per cent year on year in December 2022 to 1.53 per cent by December 2025, while average headline inflation fell to -0.14 per cent in 2025.[35, 36]
National averages conceal regional gaps. The 2022 MICS found stunting at 20 per cent in the conflict-affected southern border provinces, 26 per cent in Ranong, and wasting at 26 per cent in Songkhla, against national rates of 13 and 7 per cent respectively.[37] Low undernourishment and food insecurity therefore coexist with severe nutritional deprivation in the south.
ODI measured Thai rice prices rising at 60 per cent of the international increase during the 2007/08 spike, the highest transmission in Asia.[54, 55] The baht fell 8.8 per cent against the dollar between 2021 and 2023 as food prices rose 9.7 per cent.[56, 57] Prices have not since retraced: by March 2026, Thailand's food index remained 6.8 per cent above March 2022, while the FAO index was 19.7 per cent lower.[57, 58] In 2025, Bangkok wholesale rice prices swung 47.7 per cent between January and October.[59] A daily median provincial minimum wage bought 5.6 kg of chicken at the Bangkok wholesale price in August 2026.[60, 61]
Shock endurance:
Thailand's retainable surplus provides the main buffer; it holds no strategic reserve. Rice ending stocks of 3.847 million tonnes cover about 110 days of domestic consumption, and exports of 7.5 million tonnes equal 59 per cent of what Thais eat, so redirecting shipments inward is a very large and very fast buffer.[3] Dietary breadth is wide, with rice at 172.5 kilograms per person per year, milk at 31.9, fish and seafood at 28.6, meat at 24.5 and eggs at 11.7, all produced domestically at scale.[1]
Thailand has rebuilt production after major shocks. Avian influenza outbreaks in 2004-05 closed frozen-poultry markets, but the industry shifted towards processed chicken, now 59 per cent of export volume and 26.3 per cent of world trade.[19, 20] No outbreaks have been reported since 2008.[19] African swine fever cut the pig population to 10.84 million in January 2022 and eliminated 43 per cent of pig farmers, yet production grew 9 per cent in 2025, with a further 6 per cent forecast for 2026.[5, 24] During the Hormuz disruption, Thai Oil reduced the Middle East share of crude purchases from 91 to about 35 per cent within months.[25] These recoveries show adaptability, though each shock leaves costs and risks.
Deep reserves and investment-grade ratings give Thailand strong purchasing power during a crisis. Foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 282.3 billion in 2025, covering 8.0 months of imports.[2] The Bank of Thailand reported gross reserves of USD 301.9 billion in December 2025, enough for over nine months, including 244 tonnes of gold.[45] S&P and Fitch rate Thailand BBB+, and Moody's rates it Baa1.[39, 40, 41] Fitch cites net external assets of 47 per cent of GDP, against a BBB-category median of minus 2 per cent, and interest costs at 5.7 per cent of government revenue against a 9.2 per cent median.[39] Public debt is rising towards the government's 70 per cent ceiling: it reached 64.5 per cent at 31 July 2025, while the IMF has urged a return to the previous 60 per cent limit.[38, 44] Fitch and Moody's both moved to a negative outlook in 2025; Moody's returned to stable in April 2026.[39, 41]
Social protection reached 33.5 million people through the 2021 Rao Chana transfer programme.[42] Its 2024-25 sequel reached 18.55 million before a youth phase for 2.7 million recipients was shelved for lack of fiscal room.[43] The state can mobilise support, but the room to repeat it has narrowed.
Price controls cover 59 essential goods, including feed and fertiliser, alongside a diesel subsidy of about 65 per cent.[5] Border conflict with Cambodia costs over THB 5 billion a month in exports.[13] China has suspended most Thai poultry plants since August 2025, cutting approved sites from 22 to 5; poultry shipments to China may fall from 100,000 tonnes to 40,000-50,000 in 2026.[32] Fertiliser, fuel and transport costs have risen 50 to 80 per cent, forcing farmers to revise planting plans.[11] Protein supply is only about 18 per cent above the 58-gram reference, leaving a thin production buffer.
Trajectory
Domestic fertiliser would do most to cut risk. Thailand sits on identified potash deposits of 17.3 million tonnes at Chaiyaphum, 23.7 million at Udon Thani and 2.2 million at Nakhon Ratchasima, with concessions granted in 2015, 2022 and 2015 respectively and none of the three mining for want of finance.[22] The Udon Thani project, approved by cabinet in June 2022 at THB 36 billion, was designed for about 2 million tonnes of potash a year,[23] which on its own would exceed the 924,495 tonnes Thailand imported in 2024.[7] Nitrogen is a harder problem, since Thailand lacks the cheap gas that underwrites Gulf urea, though 2026 showed demand-side substitution has more room than the industry assumed.[10]
Feed protein diversification matters almost as much. Brazil at 91 per cent reflects policy as much as market: crude protein content rather than amino acid profile drives Thai buying preference, and tariff exemptions and quota certificates channel imports through eight approved trade associations.[5] Argentina, Paraguay and the United States are substitutable at the margin, while a 3:1 domestic purchase requirement attached to the zero-duty maize quota protects growers at the cost of raising the ration price.[27]
The resource base moves more slowly than either. Fleet reduction has brought marine catch back below the 1.5 million tonne reference, yet catch per unit effort has not recovered,[17] and the blackchin tilapia invasion has spread from Samut Songkhram, first detected there in 2011, to 13 coastal provinces as far south as Songkhla, with complete eradication judged unlikely.[28] The Thai Shrimp Association's 400,000 tonne target for 2026 would add about 148,000 tonnes over the 252,000 tonnes of vannamei and black tiger recorded in 2025.[14] On current policy, Thailand's position turns on whether production strength can keep offsetting its reliance on imported nitrogen and Brazilian meal.