The protein system
Vietnam's protein supply was 102.2 grams per person per day in 2023, of which 43.2 grams came from animal foods.[4, 5] Rice supplies 27.0 grams. Pork, fish and seafood, and poultry supply most of the rest.[4, 9]
Farms and fisheries match demand closely in most foods. In 2025 Vietnam produced 3.94 million tonnes of pork, 1.43 million tonnes of chicken and 285,000 tonnes of beef, covering 97, 90 and 68 per cent of domestic consumption.[3] Paddy output was 43.5 million tonnes, and rice exports reached 7.9 million tonnes.[12, 1] National figures put fisheries and aquaculture output at 9.95 million tonnes, 6.1 million of it farmed.[14] FAO's figures for 2023 are lower, at 3.44 million tonnes of wild catch and 5.40 million tonnes of aquaculture.[6, 7] Dairy is the largest gap: Vietnam imported 2.96 million tonnes of milk in 2023 and produced 1.25 million.[4]
Feed flows the other way. In the 2025/26 marketing year Vietnam imported 13 million tonnes of maize, 5.7 million tonnes of soybean meal, 3.2 million tonnes of soybeans, 5.8 million tonnes of wheat and 1.5 million tonnes of distillers' grains.[1, 2] FAO put total cereal imports at 22.4 million tonnes, well above the long-run average.[12] Mills turn these into 22 million tonnes of animal feed and 6.5 million tonnes of fish and shrimp feed a year.[1]
Durable domestic capacity:
On FAO food-balance figures, Vietnam produces 107 per cent of the animal protein it eats. Counting all protein, and allowing for the imported feed behind its animal output, the figure falls to 78 per cent.[4] Soybean meal is the main reason. It is about 45 per cent protein, against about 8 per cent for maize.[48, 49] The 6.0 million tonnes of soybean meal imported in carried about 2.7 million tonnes of protein, against about 0.8 million tonnes in 10.4 million tonnes of imported maize.[50]
The question is whether land, water and fisheries can keep output at this level. The wild catch has levelled off at about 3.4 million tonnes, and the government's fisheries strategy aims to cut it to 2.8 million tonnes by 2030, from 3.8 million in 2020.[6, 24] Research projects catches falling 35 to 46 per cent by mid-century.[27] The European Commission's yellow card for illegal fishing has stood since 2017, with enforcement and traceability still to be fixed.[23] Rice area is forecast to shrink from 7 million hectares in MY2024/25 to 6.71 million in MY2026/27, and maize area keeps falling as farmers move to fruit and vegetables.[1]
African swine fever is now endemic. About 1.2 million pigs were culled in 2025,[1] and 6.59 million died or were culled in 17,564 outbreaks between 2019 and 2024.[18] The Mekong Delta, home to much of the rice and pangasius, is losing ground to salt water. Salt reached 30 to 45 kilometres inland in the 2025 dry season, and at times 60 to 70 kilometres.[20] In 2024-25, water with four grams of salt per litre, too salty for most crops, reached 15 to 20 kilometres up most delta rivers.[19]
Resource headroom:
Vietnam has little spare farmland. It has 0.067 hectares of arable land per person, among the lowest of any large farming country, and that figure has fallen 19.1 per cent since 2000.[11, 37] Total cropland per person rose 7.3 per cent over the same period, despite population growth of 30.9 per cent, but most of the new land went to rubber, coffee, fruit and cashew trees rather than rice, maize or feed crops.[37, 39]
Water is more plentiful, at 3,606 cubic metres per person a year. About 22.8 per cent of it is drawn off, and farming takes 94.8 per cent of that.[11] The area equipped for irrigation has stayed at 4.585 million hectares since 2008. It now covers 68.1 per cent of arable land, up from 60.8 per cent in 2000, only because arable land has shrunk.[37] The Mekong and Red River both rise in other countries. Human activity alone could spread delta salinity by 10 to 27 per cent by 2050, and sea-level rise could add 5 to 19 per cent more.[21]
The diet needs a lot of feed. Vietnamese eat 54 kilograms of pork and poultry per person a year.[8] Feed use is forecast to rise from 28.62 million tonnes in 2025 to 30.60 million in 2027, while home-grown maize covers only about a quarter of use and is shrinking.[1] Wild fish also go into feed: 1.86 million tonnes in 2023,[4] from a catch the state plans to cut.
Money is not the limit. Farm lending reached USD 40.8 billion in 2024, nearly three times the USD 14.3 billion of 2012, although farming's share of all lending fell from 9.6 to 6.6 per cent.[38] The Mekong Delta's One Million Hectares low-emission rice programme passed 354,000 hectares by the end of 2025, about double its interim target. Farmers taking part earned 13.4 per cent more, and emissions fell by three to four tonnes of CO2 equivalent per hectare.[40]
Pangasius and tilapia are raised in freshwater ponds and need little fishmeal. Aquaculture fish and shrimp output rose 5 and 6 per cent in 2025.[2] These fish use less land and water per unit of protein than pigs or chickens, but their feed still relies on soybean meal and maize, much of it grown in Argentina, Brazil and the United States.[1, 2] Fish-feed mills can make about 5.5 million tonnes a year but run at only 60 to 70 per cent of that.[22] The spare capacity is of little use if imported feed ingredients stop arriving.
Import exposure:
Vietnam imports little of the protein people eat directly, because most of it is produced at home. It is a small net exporter of animal protein.[4] Meat and offal imports of 978,300 tonnes, worth USD 2.004 billion in 2025, equal about 17 per cent of domestic pork, chicken and beef output, and they come from many suppliers. India was the largest, with 19.3 per cent of volume.[17] Wheat comes from Australia (26 per cent), Brazil (19), the United States (17) and Ukraine (13).[1] Cargoes from South America can use the Sunda or Lombok straits if Malacca is blocked, and those from North America cross the open Pacific.
Two exposures stand out. About 69 per cent of dairy is imported, and there is no realistic way to replace it at home.[4] The meat import bill rose 12.2 per cent in a single year as swine fever held back pork output.[17] Vietnam is also one of the world's most open economies: imports of goods and services equalled 92.1 per cent of GDP in 2025,[11] so a general trade shock would reach food through many routes at once.
Upstream dependence:
Most feed is imported. In 2025 Vietnam used 28.62 million tonnes of feed ingredients and imported 23.57 million tonnes of them, or 82 per cent. Home-grown feed is mainly rice by-products, maize and cassava.[1]
Supply is also concentrated. Argentina shipped 4.18 million tonnes of soybean meal to Vietnam in 2024, worth USD 1.60 billion and about 69 per cent of the total.[15] Argentina and Brazil supplied 82 per cent of maize imports in 2025.[1] Their own trade figures show 6.81 million tonnes of Argentine maize and 4.64 million tonnes of Brazilian maize shipped in 2024.[16] The United States supplied 72 per cent of distillers' grains.[1]
Fertiliser is a strength. Vietnam produced 1,798,315 tonnes of nitrogen in 2023 against farm use of 1,764,701 tonnes, and it covered 84 per cent of its phosphate needs.[10] Potash is the exception: none is produced, and 491,555 tonnes were imported in 2023.[10] Two new soybean crushing lines began work in early 2026. They are forecast to raise domestic meal output from 1.48 million tonnes in 2025 to 2.34 million tonnes in 2027.[2] That swaps imported meal for imported beans, which can come from a wider range of suppliers.
Access and affordability:
Few people go without enough food. In 2024, 7.9 per cent of people , down from 11.1 per cent in 2017, although the share rose to 9.6 per cent in 2021 when the pandemic hit incomes.[28] was 5.3 per cent in 2023.[25]
remains high. It has many causes beyond diet, including sanitation, infection and mothers' health, and it does not measure protein shortfall directly. It affected 18.2 per cent of children under five in 2023, down from 24.6 per cent in 2015.[29] Vietnam's own 2023 nutrition survey found 18 per cent.[30, 31] Both figures are well above those of rich countries, and progress has slowed to under one percentage point a year.[30] In the northern mountains and the Central Highlands, where many ethnic minorities live, stunting is about 30 per cent.[31] Markets and roads reach these areas less well.
Food prices jump at times rather than rising steadily. Food and catering prices rose 4.03 per cent in 2024, against headline inflation of 3.63 per cent,[35] while rice rose 15.93 per cent on swings in export demand.[32] Food inflation hit 74.29 per cent in June 2008 and fell to minus 10.12 per cent in July 2009.[33]
Vietnam is one of the three largest rice exporters, and home rice prices follow its export price.[41] In the 2007/08 spike, when exports were restricted, ODI found that only 25 per cent of the world rice-price rise reached Vietnam.[42] Between 2021 and 2023 the dong lost 2.7 per cent against the dollar, while food prices rose 6.1 per cent.[43, 44]
Prices did not come down when world prices did. In March 2026, Vietnam's food price index was 15.6 per cent above its March 2022 level, while the FAO Food Price Index had fallen 19.7 per cent.[44, 45] The wholesale rice price at An Giang fell 37.8 per cent between January and November 2025.[46]
Shock endurance:
Stocks are thin. USDA puts MY2025/26 ending stocks at about 43 days of rice use, 39 days of wheat, 15 days of maize and 14 days of soybean meal.[1, 2] A break in feed shipments could hit livestock and fish farms within weeks.
The government could hold back some rice exports in a crisis, and seafood earnings could help pay for imports.[1, 13] Neither replaces feed stocks. Diets are broad, drawing on rice, pork, poultry, fish, shellfish and eggs, and rice alone supplies 26 per cent of protein.[4] Protein supply of 102.2 grams per person a day is more than two-fifths above requirement.
Paying for imports is the weaker buffer. Foreign reserves of USD 85.58 billion cover only about 2.2 months of imports,[11] below the usual three-month benchmark. GDP per head is USD 5,066, so households feel price rises quickly.[11] Vietnam's credit rating is just below investment grade, at Ba2 with a positive outlook from Moody's and BB+ with a stable outlook from S&P.[34] It could borrow in a crisis, but at a higher cost.
The pig sector has recovered strongly. African swine fever killed about six million pigs in 2019, a quarter of the herd, and pork output fell from 3.43 million tonnes in 2018 to 2.93 million in 2020. Output was back to its old level by 2023 and reached 3.94 million tonnes in 2025, 15 per cent above the earlier peak. Large, disease-secure farms now supply 62 per cent of pork.[3, 18] That shift brings its own risks. Disease that gets into a large farm reaches many more animals at once, and the new farms depend on imported feed and imported breeding pigs.[18, 47] Small farms are shrinking by about 5 to 7 per cent a year.[18] In 2025, consumers switched from pork to chicken and feed mills swapped distillers' grains for maize, showing the system can adjust.[1]
Trajectory
Protein output is rising, but so is the need for imported feed. Feed demand is forecast to rise 7 per cent between 2025 and 2027 while home-grown maize falls.[1] More crushing at home, together with more use of cassava, rice bran and new feed proteins, would reduce the reliance on Argentine soybean meal. More pangasius and tilapia would help too, since they need far less land, water and feed protein than pork, but only if feed imports keep arriving.[22]
Two risks stand out. Losing delta farmland faster than expected, to salt, sinking land and upstream dams, would cut domestic output.[21] A drought, export tax or port problem in Argentina would test a feed system holding 14 days of soybean meal, 69 per cent of it from that one country.[15, 1] The yellow card for illegal fishing would not threaten food supply, but it would cut the export earnings that pay for imports.[23]