The protein system
Mongolia's 3.4 million people live mainly on meat, milk and bread. Mutton and goat meat supply 32.3 grams of protein per person a day, wheat 20.7, milk 17.8, beef 14.2, offal 13.5 and other meat, mostly horse, 11.9.[1] Animal foods provide 74 per cent of protein, and fish almost none.[1]
On FAO food balance figures for 2023, the country produced 92 per cent of the protein its people ate and 98 per cent of the animal protein.[1] Meat output was 103 per cent of domestic supply and milk 88 per cent. Eggs were 52 per cent, and almost all poultry was imported.[1]
The herd grazes 106 million hectares of pasture, 68 per cent of the land.[2] It reached 71.1 million head at the end of 2022, then fell to 64.7 million a year later and 57.6 million at the end of 2024.[8, 9] At the end of 2025 it stood at 58.1 million, 41 per cent sheep and 40 per cent goats.[9]
Mongolia sells meat abroad. Meat exports were worth US$171.7 million in 2023, 70 per cent of it to China, and included 32,907 tonnes of horse meat.[7] China took 91 per cent of all Mongolian goods exports that year.[7]
Durable domestic capacity:
The production base is large for the population it feeds. Grazing animals turn pasture into meat and milk with little bought-in feed, and meat supply is 136 kilograms per person a year.[1, 38]
The weak point is the winter. Dzud is a winter of extreme cold and heavy snow, often after a dry summer, that leaves animals unable to reach grass. It has struck one year in five since 2000.[10] In 2009-10 it killed 10.3 million animals, almost a quarter of the herd.[13] In 2023-24 it covered more than 76 per cent of the country, and losses in 2024 cost 3.15 per cent of GDP and 30.9 per cent of agricultural output.[13, 14] Meat production fell from 526,298 tonnes in 2023 to 378,314 tonnes in 2024.[28]
The pasture is worn. In the national rangeland survey of 2016, 57 per cent of monitoring sites had changed from their natural state, and 23.1 per cent were heavily or fully degraded.[15] Goats, kept for cashmere, now make up 40 per cent of the herd and graze hard.[9] Most sites could recover within ten years with fewer animals.[15]
Wheat is the other staple, and its harvest swings widely. The 2025 crop was 252,000 tonnes, 45 per cent below the five-year average. The 2026 crop is officially estimated at about 494,000 tonnes, 20 per cent above it.[12]
Resource headroom:
Land looks plentiful. Mongolia has 0.32 hectares of cropland per person and 10,135 cubic metres of renewable freshwater per person a year.[2, 21] But the pasture already carries more animals than it can sustain, so it offers little room to grow.[15]
Cropland has gone backwards. It peaked at 1.33 million hectares in 2015 and was 1.13 million in 2024, 4 per cent below 2000 and a third lower per person.[2] Land equipped for irrigation has stayed near 88,000 hectares since 2000, 7.8 per cent of cropland, and 59,540 hectares were actually irrigated in 2024.[2]
New money is going in. In February 2025 ten banks signed MNT 800 billion of cheap loans under the Atar-4 programme. It aims for 200,000 more hectares of cropland, 200,000 more high-yielding cows and 70 per cent of fodder grown at home by 2028.[16] The large 2026 wheat harvest is the first result.[12]
Import exposure:
Imports supply about a quarter of Mongolia's protein, mostly as wheat, poultry, eggs and pork.[1] Food was 11.0 per cent of merchandise imports in 2023.[26]
The suppliers are few. In 2023 Russia supplied 99.9 per cent of imported wheat, all the wheat flour, 96.6 per cent of eggs, 87.8 per cent of pork and 99.8 per cent of sunflower oil. China supplied 94.3 per cent of poultry.[7] Mongolia is landlocked between the two and has no sea route to fall back on. Rail freight from Russia crosses at Naushki and Sükhbaatar, 2.7 million tonnes of it in 2023.[20]
The meat surplus softens this. If poultry or eggs stopped arriving, mutton and beef could take their place on most plates.[1]
Upstream dependence:
Grazing animals need almost no bought feed. They graze all year, and about a tenth of the country's protein supply goes to feed, mostly wheat.[1]
Crops and transport are another matter. Mongolia makes no fertiliser and imported about 51,000 tonnes of nitrogen in 2023, with 97.7 per cent of fertiliser by value coming from Russia.[3, 7] It has no oil refinery. Russia supplied 90.5 per cent of petroleum products by value in 2023.[7] After China stopped exporting fuel, Mongolia agreed to buy all of it from Russia, 1.8 to 1.9 million tonnes a year.[17] Tractors, combines, hay trucks and the lorries that bring meat to the city all run on it.
That link has been tested. Drone strikes on Russian refineries cut supply in 2026. Diesel stocks fell from 27 days in June to 13 to 15 days in August, and pump prices rose from about a dollar a litre to as much as two.[18, 19] Fuel sales were rationed by number plate, and some fuel is now bought from China and South Korea.[39] A domestic refinery is due to start in 2028.[39]
Access and affordability:
In 2024, 31.5 per cent of people, 1.1 million, , down from 51.9 per cent in 2017.[5] A healthy diet cost 7.06 international dollars a person a day.[5]
Hunger itself is rare. is at the reporting floor of 2.5 per cent, and moderate or severe food insecurity was 4.8 per cent in 2023.[23, 24] was 8.8 per cent.[25]
Prices are the problem. The food price index rose 50 per cent between March 2022 and March 2026.[6] After the dzud, meat grew scarce while China kept buying. In July 2026 beef was 40 to 90 per cent dearer than a year earlier and mutton 50 to 80 per cent, both at record levels.[12] Inflation reached 12.0 per cent in June 2026, driven by meat and energy.[11] At the minimum wage of MNT 792,000 a month, a kilogram of mutton cost 5.6 hours of work in August 2026 and a kilogram of beef 6.8 hours.[30, 32]
Mongolian mutton barely follows world prices. It rose 3.0 per cent between 2021 and 2022 while the FAO meat index rose 10.0 per cent.[30, 31] Its sharp rise since has come from the dzud and from Chinese demand.
Shock endurance:
Supply is more than twice what people need, and a diet this rich in meat can be cut back without people going short.[1, 38]
Stores are thin. Mongolia publishes no national grain reserve. The government holds reserve meat for Ulaanbaatar, 14,000 tonnes in 2026, and sells it below market price in spring.[37] Diesel cover fell to about two weeks in August 2026.[18]
The country has come through hard shocks. Undernourishment stayed at the reporting floor through the dzud years.[23] In 2020 the government raised child money fivefold, from MNT 20,000 to MNT 100,000 a month per child, reaching 1.2 million children in more than 500,000 households.[35] Food stamps reached 240,500 of the poorest people the same year.[36]
Money is tighter. Reserves were US$7.0 billion at the end of 2025, enough for 4.4 months of imports.[10, 11] Public debt was 45.1 per cent of GDP.[11] S&P rates Mongolia BB- and Moody's B1, both below investment grade.[33, 34]
Trajectory
The 2026 wheat crop and the Atar-4 loans show that farming responds when money arrives.[12, 16] The herd is rebuilding slowly, and meat prices are at records.[9, 12] The next dzud's toll depends on how the herd is rebuilt. A return to the old size on worn pasture would repeat the losses, while a smaller herd with more hay and shelter would hold up better.[15] The Atar-4 target of growing 70 per cent of fodder at home points that way.[16] The other exposure is the Russian link. Fuel, fertiliser and almost all imported wheat cross one border, and the 2026 fuel shortage showed how fast that supply can tighten.[17, 18] The planned refinery and fuel bought from other suppliers would ease it.[39]